Fianna Fáil are seeing something of a bounceback in tomorrow morning’s Sunday Business Post RedC poll.  The numbers, as reported by RTÉ News:

• Fianna Fáil: 30 (+4)
• Fine Gael: 35 (+2)
• Labour Party: 14 (-1)
• Sinn Féin: 8 (-2)
• Green Party: 5 (-1)
• Independent/Others: 8 (-2)

The poll is a week earlier than normal (normally it’s the last weekend of the month, which is next weekend), but this may have been a conscious decision to: a) get a quick poll out to see what’s happening with FF; and b) avoid a poll being taken in the two days after Fine Gael’s National Conference (happening today & tomorrow).

What it shows is that, although the last poll may have exaggerated Fianna Fáil’s collapse a little, it wasn’t entirely wrong (or at least, their collapse has softened a little).  More importantly for Fine Gael, it shows that their rise is solid - and they’re still going up in the polls.  One wonders if this is despite or because of Enda Kenny’s lack of publicity recently.

For Labour, Sinn Féin, Greens and Independents, it’s all well within the margin of error across the two polls.  Sinn Féin may be a little worried that they haven’t capitalised on anything to do with the economic collapse - their natural supporters should be the ones feeling the pinch most.

ITs a good week for Red C to take the latest tracking poll for the Sunday Business Post. Markets are falling like stones (Friday has the potential to be another massive dead cat bounce) and the government don’t look to have stamped authority on many aspects of policy.

REcently concludd partnership talks have the ingredients to annoy rather than placate businesses and workers alike while George Hook is busy rising the blue-shirts around him. FF will at least be using these events to cover a sharp drop in their numbers.

FF (-4) 36%

FG (+3) 28%

Lab (-1) 9%

Green (-) 7%

SF (-1) 9%

PD ( +1) 3%

The obvious irony of PD support rising as they exit stage left is overshadowed by the seriousness of a further drop in Labour support in the week their campaign HQ emailed all suporters to highlight an article extolling GIlmore as the real leader of the oposition. In the current economic climate with Cowen and his government failing to secure people’s belief the Labour leader will be very dismayed by the poll. If he is not then the job is not for him. Enda will be pleased for this sort of support next June might keep him his job.

In a great day for Irish and European democracy, the Irish people, on a higher turnout than Nice II, rejected the illegitimate and anti-democratic Lisbon Treaty by 53.4% to 46.6%. In doing so, they have struck a blow for freedom and against remote, unaccountable and undemocratic rule by unelected bureaucrats in Brussels. They have shown great courage in the face of an Establishment media blitz by Independent Newspapers, the Irish Times, the Sunday Business Post, The Tribune and others who bombarded us with a relentless torrent of black propaganda about the “disaster” a no vote would be for Ireland. As I pointed out on a previous post, the final day before polling was marked by a disgraceful attempt at scaremongering on the front-page of the Irish Independent, claiming that a “No” vote would accelerate rising unemployment. It is interesting that while the margins were not as large on the day, the poll on the Independent’s own website and the story’s comment pages were deluged by angry criticism of the story and support for a “No” vote.

This outcome cannot be separated from the context in which it takes place, which relates to one of my biggest grievances against our party-political culture - namely the culture of the “cosy-consensus”, in which like the ideological equivalent of a business-cartel cornering the market by refusing to compete with one another on price, the political-elites insist on refusing to compete with one another on a certain set of political issues. The Irish elites insisted - like with immigration - on refusing to represent the huge segment of public opinion that has historically opposed closer European political integration. Never has that been more true that now, with the elites continuing to display open contempt for our decision. Only yesterday, Una Claffey, former government spokesperson, argued that in Lisbon “we” had gotten all we wanted. Who is the “we” in this? This mantra continues to be repeated by members of the FF elite, who insisted during the referendum campaign that “we” had gotten all our “redlines” in the negotiations. Again who are “we”? The answer is clear - they are referring to themselves - the elite. Never in the history of Irish politics as an independent country have our political-class be so out of touch with the people they claim to represent.

It is infuriating to me, as a “no” voter, to hear Barroso, Wallstrom, Polish PM Donald Tusk, French Secretary for Europe Jouyet, German Foreign Minister Steinmeier and others insist that the ratification of the Treaty must go ahead. On the contrary it must not go ahead, and most certainly must not apply to Ireland in its current form. The Irish people have said “no” and if the elites persist in trying to railroad us into ratification by trying to isolate us by getting the other 26 governments and parliaments to ratify Lisbon, then it will only reinforce Irish and European public opinion of Brussels as a remote and anti-democratic project. While a pro-European myself, I had not choice but to vote no due to a number of factors including those I have described in the previous post. The French and Dutch peoples have already said no. Now the Irish have said no. You don’t need to be a rocket-scientist to deduce how the British would vote had they been given the opportunity. When the Irish politicians tell the other states should continue ratification, what they really mean is that the governments and parliaments of those countries should do so - for not one of them will dare put this to a referendum in their respective countries due to the certainty of a “no” vote. Sarkozy said as much in a meeting with journalists some months ago.

Our decision on the current package is final. Another tarted-up copy of the rejected formula rejected by the Dutch, French, and now Irish is a non-runner. We Irish are tiring of the “permanent revolution” of European integration. We want to remain in the EU and the euro, but not at any price. The recent reintroduction of the annual 1916 parades have served to remind the Irish people of what was sacrificed for our freedom, and I believe a richer Ireland is now more self-confident and inclined to defend its sovereignty in a way that was not the case in the past. If they come back to us again with a new package, we must insist it be radically different - at least in its application to Ireland - from the one we have rejected. That must include the deletion of the self-amending Article 48 that allows for treaty ratification without referenda, the retention of our Commissioner and voting weight on the Council, an opt-out from the Charter of Fundamental Rights like Poland and the UK obtained, and the retention of our national vetoes on issues like energy, public health, and tourism and sport. Anything less deserves the same answer we gave on June 12th.

In a packed Dail chamber, Brian Cowen was elected Taoiseach of Ireland after a vote to choose between him, Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore. The vote was won by 88 to 76.

He was nominated by Bertie Ahern himself however it only became quite raucous as Mary Harney seconded Cowen’s nomination and defended the government’s record - more particularly her own record - on Health.

Moment of the day has to be Jackie Healy-Rae inviting Brian Cowen to visit South Kerry with him “to fix potholes”. “The weather is getting very hot and I am under pressure”.

Hurrah, another dose of Noel Whelan on RTE. Wonderful.

Next up is the Cabinet around 6 pm, idle speculation and spin all welcome - would also love some photos of the Offaly invasion to the usual address.

The following is a synopsis of an article that appears on Irish Left Review.

When Eamon Gilmore, TD launched his leadership bid back in August he laid out his primary objective:

‘Labour should break free of, and reject, the “half party” limit which others impose on us - and which, sometimes, we inflict on ourselves.’

Full parties are those that can realistically lead a coalition government. In Ireland, consistent with political patterns in other European countries, there are two and only two full parties at any given time. Therefore, for Labour to become a full party, it must supplant one of the two larger parties.

The first electoral challenge in Labour’s quest to end its half-party status is the upcoming locals. The problem, however, is that Fine Gael is also sizing up the locals for a major breakthrough. They have a very real opportunity of becoming the largest party at local level – they trail FF by only a handful of local seats. If they are successful, this will further reinforce the ‘two full party’ system of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, leaving Labour continuing to flounder in its half party status.

However, Labour and the progressive parties can still turn the tables on the larger parties – by coming to a loose arrangement or a ‘progressive understanding’ upon which they can together fight the locals. For in 2004, the three progressive parties – Labour, Sinn Fein and the Greens – combined took 23%, trailing Fine Gael by 4% and Fianna Fail by 8%. Not only that, this progressive bloc was the largest ‘grouping’ on the major urban councils, in both seats and votes.

The progressive parties can’t overtake the larger parties in terms of seats. Where they are weakest – Connaght, Ulster, etc. – is over-represented with more than five times the councillors per electors than in areas where they are strongest. However, if they fought the election on a 1st preference basis, they could pick up seats but more importantly, they could obtain more votes than Fine Gael and quite possible Fianna Fail. In 2004, while Fine Gael and Fianna Fail were declining in the popular vote, the progressives gained over 6\%.

Of course, there are problems bringing the three parties together in a ‘Common Cause’ – not least of which is that the Greens are in government. However, there are obvious benefits for all three parties. Most of all, they would belong to a grouping that could not only drive Fine Gael into third place, but quite possible challenge Fianna Fail for first. For Labour, Sinn Fein and the Greens – and for progressives throughout Ireland – this could be for the formula whereby they end their historical half and quarter status and begin to challenge the larger parties in a way that has not been done before.

For a full analysis of these and related issues, please click on to Irish Left Review.

Irish Left Review is an online journal established by progressive bloggers to promote political cooperation between progressives from all traditions on this island with a view to helping the Left grow challenge the stranglehold that the parties of the Right have over Irish politics.

Original image The Chancer.