Archive for the 'russia' Category
The June 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.42 MB, 21 pp).
Figure 1 - World Liquids Fuel Production January 2002 - May 2008
A summary and latest graphics below the fold.[break]
Latest Developments:
1) Total liquids - In May world production of total liquids increased by 490,000 barrels per day from April according to the latest figures of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Resulting in total world liquids production of 86.60 million b/d. Average global production in 2007 was 85.41 million b/d according to the IEA. In the first five months of 2008 an average of 86.82 million b/d was produced. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in their International Petroleum Monthly puts average global 2007 production at 84.55 million b/d and the first three months of 2008 at 85.70 million b/d.
2) Conventional crude - Latest available figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production including lease condensates decreased by 134,000 b/d from February to March. All time high crude oil production now stands at 74.63 million b/d in February 2008.
A selection of charts from this edition:
Figure 2 - World Crude Oil Production January 2002 - Narch 2008
Figure 3 - Non-OPEC Crude Oil Production January 2002 - Narch 2008
Figure 4 - Saudi Arabia Crude Oil & Liquids Fuel Production January 2005 - May 2008
Figure 5 - Russia Crude Oil & Liquids Fuel Production January 2005 - May 2008
Figure 6 - Mexico Crude Oil & Liquids Fuel Production January 2005 - May 2008
Figure 7 - United Kingdom Crude Oil & Liquids Fuel Production January 2005 - May 2008
Figure 8 - Nigeria Crude Oil Production January 2002 - May 2008
The June 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.42 MB, 21 pp).
Figure 1 - World Liquids Fuel Production January 2002 - May 2008
A summary and latest graphics below the fold.[break]
Latest Developments:
1) Total liquids - In May world production of total liquids increased by 490,000 barrels per day from April according to the latest figures of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Resulting in total world liquids production of 86.60 million b/d. Average global production in 2007 was 85.41 million b/d according to the IEA. In the first five months of 2008 an average of 86.82 million b/d was produced. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in their International Petroleum Monthly puts average global 2007 production at 84.55 million b/d and the first three months of 2008 at 85.70 million b/d.
2) Conventional crude - Latest available figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production including lease condensates decreased by 134,000 b/d from February to March. All time high crude oil production now stands at 74.63 million b/d in February 2008.
A selection of charts from this edition:
Figure 2 - World Crude Oil Production January 2002 - Narch 2008
Figure 3 - Non-OPEC Crude Oil Production January 2002 - Narch 2008
Figure 4 - Saudi Arabia Crude Oil & Liquids Fuel Production January 2005 - May 2008
Figure 5 - Russia Crude Oil & Liquids Fuel Production January 2005 - May 2008
Figure 6 - Mexico Crude Oil & Liquids Fuel Production January 2005 - May 2008
Figure 7 - United Kingdom Crude Oil & Liquids Fuel Production January 2005 - May 2008
Figure 8 - Nigeria Crude Oil Production January 2002 - May 2008
The May 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.15 MB, 21 pp).
Figure 1 - World Liquids Fuel Production January 2002 - April 2008
A summary and latest graphics below the fold.
[break]
Latest Developments:
1) Total liquids - In April world production of total liquids decreased by 400,000 barrels per day from March according to the latest figures of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Resulting in total world liquids production of 86.76 million b/d. Average global production in 2007 was 85.41 million b/d according to the IEA. In the first four months of 2008 an average of 87.12 million b/d was produced. The EIA in their International Petroleum Monthly puts the average global 2007 production at 84.60 million b/d and for the first two months of 2008 at 85.80 million b/d.
2) Conventional crude - Latest available figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production including lease condensates increased by 226,000 b/d from January to February. Total production in February broke a new all time high production record at 74.66 million b/d from the previous month.
A selection of charts from this edition:
Figure 2 - World Crude Oil Production January 2002 - February 2008
Figure 3 - Non-OPEC Liquids Production January 2002 - April 2008
Figure 4 - OPEC Liquids & Crude Oil Production January 2002 - April 2008
Figure 5 - Saudi Arabia Crude Oil & Liquids Production January 2005 - April 2008
Figure 6 - Russia Liquids & Crude Oil Production January 2005 - April 2008
Figure 7 - Iraq Liquids & Crude Oil Production January 2005 - April 2008
The May 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.15 MB, 21 pp).
Figure 1 - World Liquids Fuel Production January 2002 - April 2008
A summary and latest graphics below the fold.
[break]
Latest Developments:
1) Total liquids - In April world production of total liquids decreased by 400,000 barrels per day from March according to the latest figures of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Resulting in total world liquids production of 86.76 million b/d. Average global production in 2007 was 85.41 million b/d according to the IEA. In the first four months of 2008 an average of 87.12 million b/d was produced. The EIA in their International Petroleum Monthly puts the average global 2007 production at 84.60 million b/d and for the first two months of 2008 at 85.80 million b/d.
2) Conventional crude - Latest available figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production including lease condensates increased by 226,000 b/d from January to February. Total production in February broke a new all time high production record at 74.66 million b/d from the previous month.
A selection of charts from this edition:
Figure 2 - World Crude Oil Production January 2002 - February 2008
Figure 3 - Non-OPEC Liquids Production January 2002 - April 2008
Figure 4 - OPEC Liquids & Crude Oil Production January 2002 - April 2008
Figure 5 - Saudi Arabia Crude Oil & Liquids Production January 2005 - April 2008
Figure 6 - Russia Liquids & Crude Oil Production January 2005 - April 2008
Figure 7 - Iraq Liquids & Crude Oil Production January 2005 - April 2008
The March 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.6 MB, 21 pp).
Figure 1 - World Liquids Fuel Production January 2002 - February 2008
A summary, latest graphics and an explanatory note regarding a few errors I made last time and the data used below the fold.
[break]
Latest Developments:
1) Total liquids - In February world production of total liquids increased by 175,000 barrels per day from January according to the latest figures of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Resulting in total world liquids production of 87.5 million b/d, which is the all time maximum liquids production. Average global production in 2007 was 85.41 million b/d according to the IEA. In the first two months of 2008 an average of 87.41 million b/d was produced. The EIA in their International Petroleum Monthly puts the average global 2007 production at 84.63 million b/d, slightly higher than the average 2006 production of 84.60 million b/d.
2) Conventional crude - Latest available figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production including lease condensates increased by 450,000 b/d from November to December. Total production in December was estimated at 74.2 million b/d, which is 96,000 b/d lower than the all time high crude oil production of 74.3 million b/d reached in May 2005 (difference due to rounding errors).
A selection of charts from this edition:
Figure 2 - World crude oil production January 2002 - December 2007
Figure 3 - Non-OPEC crude oil production January 2002 - December 2007
Figure 4 - OPEC crude oil production January 2002 - December 2007
Figure 5 - Non-OPEC Liquids fuel production January 2002 - February 2008
Figure 6 - OPEC Liquids fuel production January 2002 - February 2008
Figure 7 - Russia crude oil & liquids fuel production January 2002 - January 2008
Figure 8 - China crude oil & liquids fuel production January 2002 - January 2008
Figure 9 - United States crude oil & liquids fuel production January 2002 - January 2008
Figure 10 - Mexico liquids fuel production January 2002 - January 2008
Figure 11 - Brazil crude oil & Liquids fuel production January 2002 - January 2008
Figure 12 - Nigeria crude oil & liquids fuel production January 2002 - January 2008
Figure 13 - Angola crude oil & liquids fuel production January 2002 - January 2008
Figure 14 - United Kingdom crude oil & liquids fuel production January 2002 - January 2008
Figure 15 - Iraq crude oil & liquids fuel production January 2002 - January 2008
Figure 16 - Saudi Arabia crude oil & liquids fuel production January 2002 - January 2008
An explanatory note about the data used in the Oilwatch.
In the discussion at last month's oilwatch valid points were raised by sofistek and others regarding some errors I made in the February edition of the oilwatch monthly. I have corrected these slight errors in this edition.
Regarding the data used in the oilwatch, this comes mainly from free public sources. In specific I use the Oil market report by the international energy agency, the international petroleum monthly, oil price data and stock data from the Energy Information Administration and the Joint Oil Data Initiative database, which is a collective effort from a variety of energy institutes and database companies. I no longer use the short term energy outlook of the Energy Information Administration since the international petroleum monthly is a much better source of data.
In addition to these public sources I also use the paid publication, oil, gas ,coal & electricity quarterly statistics of the OECD, for addition data on liquids production. I do not use the latest purchasable oil market report from the IEA since I do not (yet) have a subscription to that publication and hence have to rely on the free issue.
World Arctic cumulative discovery.
The Arctic and its hydrocarbon resources. Source believed to be Wood Mac. Click for large version.
Using the IHS database (February 2007) Arctic fields and New Field Wildcats (NFW) were extracted for Russia, Europe (Norway and Svalbard) and North America (US and Canada).
Russia
Reserves are estimated in CIS using the Russian classification as ABC1 (corresponding to the maximum theoretical recovery or 3P)
Russian Arctic creaming curve.
There are clearly two distinct cycles. A third cycle offshore the Eastern Siberia coast is unlikely or with small potential, looking at the onshore results. The USGS ultimate estimates for the Laptev sea shelf (FS2007-3096) are at 3 Gb for Oil, 0.8 Gb for Condensate & 36 Tcf for Natural Gas.
Russian Arctic cumulative discovery.
ABC1 reserves need to be corrected to 2P (proven+probable). The best way to do so is looking at the estimate for Urengoy, called in the past the world's largest gas field (although North Dome in Qatar/Iran is much larger). Urengoy (at a latitude of 66°03’, is close to the polar circle) is reported as having more than 350 Tcf, but when plotting the decline it points to less than 250 Tcf.
Urengoy Natural Gas decline.
Europe
Norwegian Arctic creaming curve.
Several cycles mark the discovery in Norway. New cycles are possible but of small size because the results in the Barents sea have been poor so far.
Norwegian Arctic cumulative discovery.
In addition to Norway and Svalbard, there is potential in Greenland. In its 2000 world assessment, the USGS estimated the East Greenland undiscovered volume at 47 Gb for Oil, just by guessing the number of discoveries to be expected (range 1, 250, 500) and size (range 20, 85, 12 000 Mb) without any seismic or well data, just plain analogy with the North Sea. The estimates for undiscovered Condensate were 4 Gb and 81 Tcf for Natural Gas. This exaggerated estimate was reduced in 2007 (FS 2007-3077) by updating East Greenland to 9 Gb for Oil, 8 Gb for Condensate and 86 Tcf for Natural Gas.
North America
North American Arctic creaming curve.
There are several cycles in the creaming curve, with a possible future one but of small size. On February 6th of 2008, the US sold 488 leases in the Chukchi sea, totalling 2.2 G$; most leases were bought by Shell and Conoco. In 1989 and 1990 4 dry holes were drilled in this area plus a gas discovery at Burger (14 Tcf) which was relinquished by Shell in 1996. Shell bought back the Burger lease for 105 M$ (about the cost of one well in this area). The cost of the famous Mukluk dry hole in 1983 in the shallow waters of the North Slope was over 1 G$.
The USGS published in 2005 a report (FS2005-3043) on the central part of Alaska - Central North Slope – putting undiscovered Oil and Natural Gas resources at 4 Gb and 37 Tcf. In addition to that there's the potential of 7.7 Gb and 4 Tcf for the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) (FS2005-1217) and also at the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA). The KIC well drilled in 1985 in the ANWR is still confidential, despite the rule of becoming public after only a few years! All these estimates seem in disagreement with the creaming curve. But the USGS past approach since 2000 has been too optimistic, where only one geologist is simply guessing solely the number of discoveries and the size to be forecast (seventh approximation sheet) and then a Monte Carlo run (50 000 transforms) These wild guesses result into a beautiful distribution that looks real. A better approach should be hoped for, based on the complete past data reviewed by several geologists.
The closest developed field to ANWR is Badami, operated by BP, with an initial estimate of 120 Mb for 300 M$. It was abandoned in 2003 after 4 years of production, totalling 4 Mb with a peak of 3150 b/d in 1999, ten times less than expected! For the Mackenzie delta (FS2006-302) the USGS estimates undiscovered Oil at 10 Gb, Condensate at 4 Gb and Natural Gas at 87 Tcf.
North American Arctic cumulative discovery.
World
Adding the three regions above - after correcting the Russian ABC1 to a mean value by reducing 30% - give the world Arctic potential.
World Arctic creaming curve.
Two cycles can be modelled (1960-1988 and 1989-2006 for Natural Gas, 1960-1984 and 1985-2006 for Oil) A third cycle is likely to be of a size lower than the accuracy (bad in Russia) of the present discoveries. The creaming curve is flattening for both oil and gas cumulative volumes, but not for the number of fields, which present a linear display since 1943. Only small fields are likely to be found in the future.
The ultimate is estimated to be 50 Gb for Oil and 1000 Tcf for Natural Gas. For Oil this estimate is very close to Colin Campbell's 52 Gb value, but it is less than half CERA's 2007 estimate (118 Gb). It is equal to about the potential given only for East Greenland (47 Gb) in the USGS 2000 report.
The USGS did not assess the global Arctic, only several Petroleum Systems, but a new study called “The Circum-Arctic Oil and Gas Resource Appraisal” is planned for the summer of 2008. The Wood Mackenzie and Fugro Robertson 2006 report estimates the Arctic containing only 3% of the world’s oil (with 80% of the Arctic potential being gas).
World Arctic cumulative discovery.
Conclusion
The Arctic oil and gas potential has been fairly well explored since 1943 and displayed several cycles with little discovered volumes since 1990 (despite 75 discoveries in number of fields). Known discoveries have three times more gas than oil. Most of the Arctic gas reserves are stranded (Prudhoe Bay) gas pipes from such remote places are very expensive and will be built only in a decade.
The recent attempt by the Russians to claim the North Pole is attributed to oil and gas potential. The only seismic line on the Arctic Sea I know of is from a study by the IODP:
The scientific inspiration that subsequently led to ACEX surfaced aboard F/S Polarstern in 1991 when two reflection seismic profiles (AWI-91090 and AWI-91091) were acquired by Wilfried Jokat and Yngve Kristoffersen across the Lomonosov Ridge between 87° and 88°N. These profiles show a neatly draped sediment sequence being over 400 m thick, at a modest water depth of ca 1200 m, which were considered to represent an undisturbed and continuous record of lower Eocene to Recent sediments.A thickness of 400 m is not enough for a real oil and gas potential. The Russian's move seems to be more connected to controlling sea navigation.
Arctic oil and gas will not change much the coming world peak oil and gas!
Previously at The Oil Drum : Europe: Interview with Jean Laherrère
The Oil Drum : Europe is once more grateful to Jean Laherrere for sharing his experince with us.
In his second blog entry, Andris Piebalgs moves the focus to European energy security. A few choice excerpts for those who want to have a more spontaneous debate:
Europe is currently importing half of their energy needs, and according to most of the studies, our dependency may grow to 70%. We are running out of fossil fuels and our energy needs grow. This makes Europe terribly vulnerable. As Commissioner responsible for security of supply I often wondered, where are we going to get all that energy from? (my emphasis)
The EU is already a leader in renewable energy sources and we have taken a commitment to go further with a mandatory target of 20% of our final consumption by 2020......
[break]
Ambitious indeed, but I would like Europe to go far beyond this target and there are many reasons for that: climate change, competitiveness, development of new technologies, new companies, new jobs you name it. And if this was not enough, we simply have to think that every wind mill, every solar panel, every litre of biofuel makes the EU simply more independent.
And on the recent spat between Russia and Ukraine on gas supplies (discussed by Jerome here):
A first agreement was reached on the phone by Gazprom and Naftogaz Ukrainy chairmen, and normal deliveries of gas have been resumed. I must say that the fact that supplies to Europe remained unaltered during the bilateral conflict between Russia and Ukraine plays in favour of their reputation as reliable supply and transit country. But I am still concerned. What would it happen if the bilateral crisis had become worse? Will this happen again? What about if a key supply infrastructure is destroyed by an accident or a terrorist attack? What would be the consequences for Europe of geopolitical instability in key energy regions like the Gulf?
I have to say I am warming to Mr Piebalgs appreciation of the precarious state of European energy security and the proposed expansion of renewables targets will receive my full support - with one glaring exception.
One omission from the whole strategy is energy efficiency. This I believe must lie at the heart of everything we do.
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