Worldwide concern is growing over high oil prices, the security of supply of fossil fuels and its impact on many sectors of our society. Such concerns voiced at the oildrum over the past years are becoming part of the mainstream energy discussion. On 21 & 22 January 2009 a major business conference will be held in the Netherlands in which I am involved as an advisor in my role as President of ASPO Netherlands.

I invite you to come and listen to top executives and leaders from many industrial sectors who will explore the effects of high oil prices in their field of expertise or industry. Day 1 is dealing with political and macro economic aspects of changing oil supplies. Day 2 is teaching more about specific economic sectors, like Transport & Infrastructure, Food & Agriculture, Energy Systems and Chemicals & Materials.

There will be many speakers including Maria van der Hoeven (Dutch Minister of Economic Affairs), Matthew Simmons (invited), Peter de Wit (President Shell Netherlands), Kjell Aleklett (ASPO International), Jeremy Tomkinson (CEO The National Non-Food Crops Centre), Jörg Schindler (ASPO Germany) and Ger Bemer (CEO Royal Nedalco). For Conference Agenda and Registration, go to the the Permanent Oil Crisis website.

Under the fold, find the highlights from the program. Come to Amsterdam!

Plenary sessions on Wednesday, 21 January on political and macro economic aspects of changing oil supplies.

Presentations will include “Sustainable Energy for the Automotive Sector”, “The oil export end game”, “A geo-political perspective on the future of oil”, “Oil market developments to 2030″, “Limits to growth for tradition transportation fuels: can we find a timely substitute?”, “Post oil energy supply: an investment opportunity”, “Relationship between fossil fuel depletion and climate policy”, “World food security and bioenergy policy”.

Parallel sessions on Thursday, 22 January on Transport and Infrastructure, Chemicals and Materials, Food and Agriculture, Energy Systems, Coal and CCS, and Energy Investments

Presentations will include “Impact of energy costs and availability on the supply chain of food production and distribution”, “Is electrification together with it’s sources a replacement for oil and gas”, “White biotechnology: replacing black gold?”, “When plastics go green: technologies, markets & policies”, “How to realize a clean and secure energy system”, “Underground coal gasification, an expansion of the coal era?”, “The impacts of higher energy prices on global food and agriculture”, “More food, feed fiber and energy - can the world make it?”, “Energy investment switch for a post oil world”.

For details and registration see the conference website at
www.permanentoilcrisis.com

Latam Commons 2008: The Public Domain, Creative Commons, and Open Education in Latin America, held Nov 19-21 in Santiago, Chile, was a great success. The event was co-hosted and excellently managed by NGO Derechos Digitales, and representatives from all over Latin America were present and actively participated in the meeting. Project Leads of Creative Commons jurisdictions first held a one-day meeting to discuss their projects, possible strategic initiatives and collaborations across the region, and shared challenges. These conversations are just the beginning of what is planned to become a regular regional gathering to leverage the expertise and resources that are distributed throughout the region. The next day was devoted to a highly interactive “unconference” on open education which brought together leading international advocates for open education with key figures in libraries and ministries of education in Chile and beyond. The goal of the meeting was to gather information regarding top concerns and key projects involved in the growth of the open education movement, to be synthesized and then leveraged for collaborative opportunities both within and beyond the region. Look for a report on this event in the coming months. Finally, Derechos Digitales orchestrated a seminar on the public domain which included cutting-edge research reports and discussions regarding the legal and practical elements of both defining and utilizing the public domain in Latin America. The philosophical and legal issues pertinent to consideration of the public domain is clearly of broad interest in the region, and we are hopeful that these ideas will continue to serve as organizing themes for ongoing conversation and action to enhance access to knowledge and improved scholarship in the future.

Additional details will be forthcoming from ccLearn, CCi, and Derechos Digitales.

The first ASPO conference I attended was in 2006, in Pisa, where it was hosted by Ugo Bardi. While I was there, I had the good fortune to meet Dennis Meadows, a man whose work I have known since I was very young, but which now has much more relevance than I first imagined. During his address, he told us an important thing: As events start unfolding and a general awareness of depletion arises, ASPO will loose its raison d'être.

[break]

I enjoyed my time at Barcelona, visiting a wonderful set of people in a fascinating city. As I wrote earlier, the city itself is a living lesson on urban planning, very walkable and cyclable, with good public transport and uniform buildings. Other than the main traffic avenues (that have two or three lanes each way plus pedestrian and cycling paths), all of the streets are one way--a small detail that makes life so much easier (and safer) for pedestrians and cyclists. The old Gothic quarters of the city are not laid in the same ruler and triangle fashion, but are comprised of many narrow streets where cars are useless--pedestrians rule, bicycles and scooters abound.

I had little time for tourism. I couldn't go visit Gaudí's works, only the eternally under construction Sacred Family Cathedral, but Sunday afternoon Chris and I went for a walk and got a good feeling of the city. Everywhere you go, especially in the old city, there's something happening--people shopping, dancing, acting, and street musicians in every corner (jazz, folk, classical, the whole lot). Barcelona is a city alight with life, where people enjoy being outside.

Just a small example of this cosmopolitanism: we eventually ended up at a park where there was warm sunshine between passing clouds. At the park, there were many people jogging; many children playing. At a corner of the park, there was an elevated bandstand, crammed with people dancing to a stereo. The majority were in their twenties, but there were people of other ages, also. Such spontaneity would never happen back home, I said to Chris. And the funniest part about it was that they were dancing to American music: Swing.

But back to the conference itself. When the TOD crew got together Saturday evening, we could already sense that this time it would be somewhat different. Unfortunately, many of the national ASPO branches could not be present, mostly for financial reasons. Without people like Bruce Robinson, Jorg Schindler, Herman Zittel or Klaus Illum, an ASPO conference is not exactly the same. None of our friends from ASPO-China or ASPO-Japan could make it either.

When I arrived at the speakers reception and complimented Daniel Gómez, one of the organizers, he told me something similar: “Bienvenido al ASPO de los resistentes”--Welcome to the ASPO conference of the resistance. This was indeed not a favourable time to host a conference on fossil fuel depletion, after a 50% decline in oil prices, with global economic recession at the door step.

ASPO found itself at a crossroads: While not everyone accepts that a peak in world oil production is here now, the general public takes cheap oil as something of the past. More than that, the economic difficulties envisioned as following constraints in oil production growth are here. ASPO must somehow evolve in order to keep a relevant role in Society. And this goes for most of the peak oil awareness movement too. The time is here to move beyond Oil.

Bob Lloyd put the situation in more explicit terms during the speakers reception, “We are facing the first impacts of the problem. A period of time is beginning when Society will be receptive to and will listen for a solution, but this period of time may be very short”. The problem is that there is no “Solution” for the depletion of Fossil Fuels, and ASPO was never was an organization of answers, but of questions. Moreover, it is likely that the problem must be addressed beyond the physical solutions.

But ASPO can be a catalyst, not for a “Solution,” but for new policy strategies and tactics that may help us fare better through the transition away from Fossil Fuels. Facing depletion is not yet at the heart of the political agenda, at every level, from international relations to state executive programs to daily family life. And although energy is becoming a concern for many policy makers, net energy is still pretty not understood, when it should be the lighthouse guiding us through the storm.

While this sort of quasi-academic conference is very fruitful for those of us who take part in it, it may not be now the best way to impact the political agenda. When ASPO started, it made sense to hold an event like this, building the network of scientists, researchers and concerned citizens who are now the fabric of the Association. But now ASPO (and the peak oil movement in general) need to start reaching out directly and frequently to politicians and industry. Some national branches have been able to do this at a regional level, but at the international, even pan-European or pan-American level, it is yet to happen.

I can't exactly say how this new step for ASPO should be taken. It may be by trying other forms of events, perhaps by focusing more on what's beyond Oil and beyond Growth. Above all, I feel that ASPO somehow needs to start offering more hope and less gloom. Maybe that way it can find its optimal role for the future.

See you next year,

Luís de Sousa
TheOilDrum : Europe

ASPO VII - second day

The first ASPO conference I attended was in 2006, in Pisa, where it was hosted by Ugo Bardi. While I was there, I had the good fortune to meet Dennis Meadows, a man whose work I have known since I was very young, but which now has much more relevance than I first imagined. During his address, he told us an important thing: As events start unfolding and a general awareness of depletion arises, ASPO will loose its raison d'être.

[break]

I enjoyed my time at Barcelona, visiting a wonderful set of people in a fascinating city. As I wrote earlier, the city itself is a living lesson on urban planning, very walkable and cyclable, with good public transport and uniform buildings. Other than the main traffic avenues (that have two or three lanes each way plus pedestrian and cycling paths), all of the streets are one way--a small detail that makes life so much easier (and safer) for pedestrians and cyclists. The old Gothic quarters of the city are not laid in the same ruler and triangle fashion, but are comprised of many narrow streets where cars are useless--pedestrians rule, bicycles and scooters abound.

I had little time for tourism. I couldn't go visit Gaudí's works, only the eternally under construction Sacred Family Cathedral, but Sunday afternoon Chris and I went for a walk and got a good feeling of the city. Everywhere you go, especially in the old city, there's something happening--people shopping, dancing, acting, and street musicians in every corner (jazz, folk, classical, the whole lot). Barcelona is a city alight with life, where people enjoy being outside.

Just a small example of this cosmopolitanism: we eventually ended up at a park where there was warm sunshine between passing clouds. At the park, there were many people jogging; many children playing. At a corner of the park, there was an elevated bandstand, crammed with people dancing to a stereo. The majority were in their twenties, but there were people of other ages, also. Such spontaneity would never happen back home, I said to Chris. And the funniest part about it was that they were dancing to American music: Swing.

But back to the conference itself. When the TOD crew got together Saturday evening, we could already sense that this time it would be somewhat different. Unfortunately, many of the national ASPO branches could not be present, mostly for financial reasons. Without people like Bruce Robinson, Jorg Schindler, Herman Zittel or Klaus Illum, an ASPO conference is not exactly the same. None of our friends from ASPO-China or ASPO-Japan could make it either.

When I arrived at the speakers reception and complimented Daniel Gómez, one of the organizers, he told me something similar: “Bienvenido al ASPO de los resistentes”--Welcome to the ASPO conference of the resistance. This was indeed not a favourable time to host a conference on fossil fuel depletion, after a 50% decline in oil prices, with global economic recession at the door step.

ASPO found itself at a crossroads: While not everyone accepts that a peak in world oil production is here now, the general public takes cheap oil as something of the past. More than that, the economic difficulties envisioned as following constraints in oil production growth are here. ASPO must somehow evolve in order to keep a relevant role in Society. And this goes for most of the peak oil awareness movement too. The time is here to move beyond Oil.

Bob Lloyd put the situation in more explicit terms during the speakers reception, “We are facing the first impacts of the problem. A period of time is beginning when Society will be receptive to and will listen for a solution, but this period of time may be very short”. The problem is that there is no “Solution” for the depletion of Fossil Fuels, and ASPO was never was an organization of answers, but of questions. Moreover, it is likely that the problem must be addressed beyond the physical solutions.

But ASPO can be a catalyst, not for a “Solution,” but for new policy strategies and tactics that may help us fare better through the transition away from Fossil Fuels. Facing depletion is not yet at the heart of the political agenda, at every level, from international relations to state executive programs to daily family life. And although energy is becoming a concern for many policy makers, net energy is still pretty not understood, when it should be the lighthouse guiding us through the storm.

While this sort of quasi-academic conference is very fruitful for those of us who take part in it, it may not be now the best way to impact the political agenda. When ASPO started, it made sense to hold an event like this, building the network of scientists, researchers and concerned citizens who are now the fabric of the Association. But now ASPO (and the peak oil movement in general) need to start reaching out directly and frequently to politicians and industry. Some national branches have been able to do this at a regional level, but at the international, even pan-European or pan-American level, it is yet to happen.

I can't exactly say how this new step for ASPO should be taken. It may be by trying other forms of events, perhaps by focusing more on what's beyond Oil and beyond Growth. Above all, I feel that ASPO somehow needs to start offering more hope and less gloom. Maybe that way it can find its optimal role for the future.

See you next year,

Luís de Sousa
TheOilDrum : Europe

ASPO VII - second day

After a rather gloomy day of forecasts of conventional energy supplies, the second day was more promising: alternative energy was the main dish. Economics and Finance would also be on the table. It was a heavily scheduled day with some Q&A sessions omitted to make room for all the speakers.

[break]

Crossposted at the European Tribune.

For the background of each speaker, please visit the conference's website.

Victor Brenstein opened the day with an address on Peak Oil and its implications for Politics in Latin America. It was a different perspective of the geopolitics of Oil. Being a part of the world where social injustice is profound, Energy has a greater social dimension in Latin America. “So far from God and so close to the US” is a popular saying in Mexico that expresses many of the problems the region faces today. Victor went on to say that the US has always considered Latin America to be its backyard, something well exemplified by the creation of Panama, a buffer around a vital commercial route. Oil Nationalism is part of the Latin American ideology. Because of this, defending a country's oil is equivalent to defending its sovereignty. Mexico nationalized its oil industry back in 1916. In the 1990s, the US tried to liberalize the energy market in Latin America under the concept, “We will sell it for you.” This was to a great extent a failure.

Then came Colin Campbell with his traditional talk “A Turning Point to Mankind”. There was nothing really new in it, but it is always a pleasure to hear Colin, who is an excellent speaker. He manages to capture the audience's attention with humorous easy logic associations like “Draining a barrel is different from milking a cow, the former will eventually dry out”. He pointed out that it was cheap energy that afforded the Flat-Earth Heresy and then moved to the discussion of reserve growth due to economic reasons in the West and for political reasons in OPEC. He then summarized three tools that help us to better understand Peak Oil: the Creaming Curve, the Parabolic Fractal Law and Hubbert's Linearization Method. Colin finished by stressing once more that the date of peak is not that important. More important is the vision of the long decline that follows. We have a huge challenge ahead, but he showed that part of the answer is possibly not in the physical plane.

Next was an address many looked forward to, entitled “Speculation and the Energy Market” by Luca Barillaro. He started by giving some numbers: the amount of contracts that are traded every day at Nymex is about 300 thousand with the other exchanges (ICE, etc) trading around 250 thousand contracts; this means that paper oil exceeds physical oil by a factor of five. A trader can acquire one contract by paying just 8% to 10% of its value, using what is called margin. In day trading, this value can be as low as 3% to 5%; thus the equivalent of one day of the world's oil consumption can be traded with just $400 million. The up tick in oil prices from $90 to $147 was unnatural and disruptive. Commercial companies hedging their business (e.g. airlines) got scared away; since last August the market has been in forced liquidation, with speculators selling and commercials buying. Then Luca went on to show that in the last 3 days of trade each month, the number of contracts goes down to 2000 per trader, and speculation moves to the months ahead. Luca pointed that in Europe it seems that everyone is now liberal and Liberalism the only way of thinking. We indeed need free markets, so that companies can hedge their businesses, but we also need new rules to avoid volatility, caused by reduced position limits and higher margin requirements. He finished by saying that in the end it was Speculation that brought depletion to the spotlight.

And then came Jérôme to talk about Wind Power. This has been the energy source of choice in Europe during the last few years, and has now reached 40% of new installed capacity. Investment in Wind has now surpassed any other energy source in Europe. Although there are at present some growth constraints (demand has overwhelmed supply), in a few years the sector should be increasing by 1.5 GW to 2 GW of new installed capacity per year. Wind now makes economic sense (it's not about emissions or sustainability), and promises to be a major part of the answer to fossil fuel depletion. The details of Jérôme's presentation can be read in this post.

Charlie Hall addressed EROEI and Economics. He started by explaining that the study of Peak Oil and resource depletion in general has been going on for many decades. Contrary to popular belief, the scenarios laid down by the seminal work The Limits to Growth have proven correct. So far Economic Theory has worked because we pumped more and more oil from the ground to make it work; Economics as conceived today is not a science based on hypotheses tested against facts. He then explained how the traditional Cobb-Douglass function of Growth is missing Energy, by considering solely Capital and Labour. Charlie left EROEI to the closing part of his address, stressing that markets do not increase efficiency, with all the major energy sources used by mankind following declining EROEI paths identified decades ago. All development has been done by simply applying more energy to our societies; once that influx stops growing, declining EROEI will immediately translate into declining discretionary spending, as more and more energy is used to maintain ageing sources and/or kick starting new ones. Charlie's presentations are always fun and interesting, keeping the audience close to him and usually ending with the picture of a man trying to push a big round rock over a hilltop with “Neoclassic Economics” written on it.

Next came another interesting address with a good amount of humorous content, Biofuels by Mario Giampietro. He started by showing some examples of the Biofuel Folly, advertisements for corn stoves (that are actually more efficient than using ethanol in internal combustion engines), and a man that proposes to go around the world on a boat powered by diesel synthesized from human fat obtained by liposuction. He showed several flow charts comparing the amount of energy and time used by society to produce food now and in the past: right now we are able to produce about 67 kg of food per hour, whereas before the Industrial Revolution that figure was about 1 kg per hour. Another interesting figure he presented related to sugar cane ethanol: using data made public by the Brasilian industry, EROEI can be calculated at 2:1, casting serious doubts on much higher figures presented in the past. So why the Agro-fuel Folly? Mario presented three main reasons:

• they are an easy solution;
• there are many non-experts in the field;
• they are the last hope of the agonizing Industrial Agriculture.

Over our long History, Mankind has learned how to make food with oil. Making oil with that food is thus a very bad idea. After all this talk about food, it was a good thing that we headed for lunch.

The afternoon session started with an important address by Bob Lloyd entitled “The Growth Illusion”. Mankind is not addicted to Oil but to Growth. Even if we make the transition to Renewable Energy, Growth will stop and there is no solution to this problem in the physical world. Unfortunately, Growth has long been promoted as the solution to all of our problems, especially by free markets; but Economic growth implies growth in resource consumption, which is not a given. The concept of Sustainable Development is itself a blunder (no growth is sustainable); to be sustainable we have to become poorer-–people simply don't like it. People accepted the Growth Folly because the human brain was not conceived to cope with today's problems (we evolved as hunter gatherers.) Homo Sapiens haven't had the time to evolve to cope with the scientific problems posed by Peak Oil and Climate Change. There might be a genetic pre-disposition towards growth: breed to grow population and gather resources to increase the probability of breeding. Bob ended with a disturbing assertion: the reptile area of our brains might be actually leading us to collapse, because it is at those times of distress that that area of the brain works better.

And then came José Luís Garcia from Greenpeace-Spain to talk about an Energy Revolution that would take Spain to 100% Renewables in 2050. After Bob's address this presentation seemed like an anti-climax, or maybe as an immediate example of the problems he had previously raised. Early in the presentation José Luís told a startled audience that Spain can generate 50 times its present energy demand from renewable sources. Soon after, I stopped taking notes. There were no references to such problems as declining EROEI, how to run the present Transport system with electricity or load balancing, just the good old businesses-as-usual scenario: grow baby grow. For an institution with such influence and self imposed responsibility towards our future, Greenpeace seems to have little contact with reality.

Next came a presentation that I very much enjoyed: Gonzalo Piernavieja came to show how the Island of El Hierro in the Canaries is planning to address peak oil. The island has a population of about 10,500 and presently generates its electricity with oil products, but now wants to completely phase out its oil use by 2015. The task is not huge, and is made easier by sustained winds that buffet the island, allowing for more than 4,000 hours of base load. A handful of turbines will be erected on a favourable plateau and backed by a set of two cascading water reservoirs, connected by a pipeline allowing for back-pumping. It is an interesting microcosm of the arrangements we can make in the short/mid term in the face of fossil fuel depletion. But the plan also displayed a major weaknesses in coping with peak oil: as far as I could understand, the plan doesn't deal with Transport. Naturally on such a small island, there aren't many miles of roads, but the connections to the outside world all rely on fossil fuel, whether the transportation is water-borne or air-borne. As with the Canary Islands, many other islands face similar challenges. Those near us include the Madeira Islands, the Azores, and even the Mediterranean Islands–-they can became very vulnerable places. Their main industry, Tourism, will likely implode and possibly force a re-structuring of their entire economy.

Richard Meyer came from Germany to address the Potential of Solar Power. This was another presentation that was probably too much on the bright side of things, but had interesting content. Richard sees plenty of options in Renewable Energy to cover the demand gap left by Peak Oil. He primarily addressed three forms of solar power: Photo-Voltaic, Solar Heating and Cooling, and Concentrated Solar Power. For each one of them, he showed examples of development and installed infrastructure. There was no direct mention of EROEI, economic feasibility, or the traditional concerns with raw materials. In Portugal, solar heating has been commercial for decades and probably hasn't grown more because cheap Natural Gas came along in the early 1990s; solar cooling is just now entering the market, and the return on investment is attractive (four years to break even with subsidies). As for Photo-Voltaics, a panel is not yet able to pay for itself during its life-time without subsidies. In certain aspects Solar seems to be still an immature energy source, luckily trailing Wind just a few years back along the growth curve.

With the Conference coming to an end, Juan Requejo came to bring a Geographic dimension to fossil fuel depletion. He started by remembering that during the hauliers' (truckers) strikes in July it was possible to bring the Car Manufacturing industry to a halt in just two days. This is an example of an era that is now ending in which all decisions were made on an economic basis (e.g. just-in-time); a new era will emerge where all decisions will be made on a net energy basis. He went on to show several examples of present urban layouts; among them were pictures contrasting the incredible long distances of North-American suburbs with the Chinese high-rise “in-urbs”. These are two extreme examples of highly energy intensive infrastructure created by urban plans that won't last without fossil fuels. New cities are needed based on old pre-automobile villages built on a de-centralized energy generation infrastructure.

And to finalize the conference, came one of the hosts, Pedro Prieto. He talked about Spain's experiences with Solar and Wind, and the implications these experiences have for the rest of the World. He started by noting that what we call Renewable Energies today are in fact non-renewable systems capturing renewable energy. The renewable infrastructure being built uses a great deal of fossil fuel inputs that need to be taken in account. He then addressed Wind, which is unpredictable and hard to balance on the grid. While Spain is the second most mountainous country in Europe (after Switzerland), it has little pumped-storage potential to deal with a massive scale-up of wind energy. He also cast doubts on the ability of the non-developed world to reach our standards in renewable energy. Since this was the last presentation of the conference, the audience perhaps needed to end on a more optimistic note, but Pedro raised important questions. The most important point he made was that we won't make the transition away from fossil fuels by simply concentrating on electricity generation. Some sectors are still heavily reliant on fossil fuel products (e.g. Transport, Mining) and industries like Wind in turn rely heavily on these fossil-fuel dependent industries. The Energy Policy for the XXI century will have to reach many (all?) sectors of our society in an integrated, coordinated manner.

A special announcement was scheduled for the end of this last day. Pedro called Jean Laherrère and Colin Campbell on stage and Dániel brought out two wooden boxes. As he offered the boxes to them, Pedro told a story:

I was in Bagdad in 1990 when Saddam Hussein ordered the distribution of "air-raid early warning systems." I became very curious to know what those systems were. So here we present you with two "Peak Oil early warning systems" commemorating the 10 years passed since the publication of your seminal article in Scientific American.

Jean and Colin opened the boxes and took from them two golden bells.

After all the laughs, the final item on the schedule came: the projection of the movie Petroapocalypse Now?. I didn't enjoy it much. The content was good, with many interviews, including our own Jeffrey Brown (westexas) and Fatih Birol (a lucid man that should be at an ASPO conference one of these days), but the format was terrible. It was very high speed, with each interviewee saying just one or two sentences at a time, and all accompanied by a soundtrack taken from a 1980s video-game. A theme like Peak Oil must be laid down in a way that leaves room for the spectator to reflect on the consequences of what he's being told, and to re-assess many of his concepts about life. “The End Of Suburbia” probably set the standard too high in this task, and will be hard to be out-done.

The day was drawing to a close; the following morning I'd have to head back home and to regular life.
But there was still time to share a rare evening with a set of wonderful people concerned with our common future.

Las Ramblas.

ASPO VII - first day

The VII International Conference on Oil and Gas Depletion was the first in many ways: the first after the death of Ali Samsam Bakhtiari; the first after record oil prices; and the first after serious economic difficulties hitting the OECD. Right from the beginning there was a feeling in the air that circumstances had changed and a new era had arrived.

[break]

Crossposted at the European Tribune.

For the background of each speaker please visit the conference's website.

This year's conference took place in the cosmopolitan city of Barcelona in Catalonia, The city itself is a living example of the arrangements in urban planning we might have to undertake to answer Peak Oil. Throughout the days spent there I felt quite comfortable, in a place worth living and caring for, even if expensive in some aspects (well, public bicycles are free for half an hour).

The typical “ruler and triangle” Barcelona neighbourhood. The blue P sign marks places were a public bicycle can be picked up or left.

The conference took place at the city's World Trade Centre, by sea side, in a well equipped theatre that even provided simultaneous translation, allowing for addresses in Catalan, Castellan and the obvious English. Just outside the hall there was a suitable location for the usual sideline discussions during coffee breaks, complete with a display of posters and brochures.

Ali Bakhtiari

The first day started with the usual opening ceremony, this time hosted by the Catalan minister of Innovation, University and Enterprise. Then followed Kyell Alleklett with a welcoming address. He remembered Ali Bakhtiari, and how important he was for the start up of ASPO, and the risk he took in associating with the organization. He stressed that the concept of Peak Oil is yet not well understood by all and told us about his bet with BP's Tony Hayward, that world oil production in 2018 will be below today's rate. Going on with his address on “Peak Oil and Economic Growth in Africa”, Kyell pointed that without Oil, a country cannot have political strength. Production is growing in sub-Saharan Africa, and will reach a peak over 7 Mb/d, but the West and China are taking that resource away. He concluded that we should be helping Africa use that Oil and not stealing it away.

Carlos de Castro, from the University of Valladolid, presented an approach to modelling the future of the world's energy and economy using systems dynamics. He pointed out that both geologists and economists are looking at the problem considering a restricted set of variables, thus having a limited view. All the main variables considered by these two groups must be taken into account as well as the feedbacks among them. Two different scenarios were laid out. In the first (the optimistic one), the world would enter a long plateau in energy supply after which coal, fusion and a few other new sources would put growth back on track. Carlos stressed that such period of energy use stagnation coinciding with strong population growth is unprecedented. He went on to the second scenario where an additional linear feedback was included from GDP to alternative energy; in such case world energy usage enters an irreversible decline.

Following was Salvador Pueyo from the Catalan Institute for Climate Sciences who presented an “Epidemic” model of Oil Depletion. He recalled how the logistic is based on Verhulst's model of population growth, for which the Plague of the XVII century is a classical example. He made the equivalence of the biologic SIR framework to oil production: the Susceptible population being Oil in the ground; the Infected, oil in production; and the Removed, old oil fields. He quoted TOD several times, where a discussion about the correctness of this approach has remained for more than three years, specifically this post by Khebab. He then applied the Linearisation method (which corresponds to the assumption that the growth rate increases linearly) to several regions, avoiding an assessment of the world.

After a coffee-break came Jean Laherrère and Jean-Luc Wingert showing how the world's liquids production will evolve in the face of serious economic constrains. Jean showed his familiar comprehensive graphs. First he noted important inconsistencies with publicly available data (especially with BP's), and then went on to forecast an unconstrained peak liquids by 2015 with 2 Tb for the Conventional Oil ultimate (excluding extra-heavy) and NGPL following the Natural Gas profile. But Jean thinks that a bumpy plateau is more likely than a clear peak, and we may already have entered such a plateau 3 years ago. Then came Jean-Luc to present two scenarios based on Jean's assessment of reserves and flows, but this time considering economic constrains in light of previous crisis: the 1980s world crisis and Argentinian crisis. In case of a Hard crisis production falls visibly but later rebounds strongly, possibly surpassing the previous maximum; if that's the case, it is possible that Peak Oil might fade into obscurity for some years. In case the crisis is not so severe (the Soft scenario), production a less pronounced fall is expected, possibly resembling the “bumpy plateau”.

At the end of this talk Jean declared that this was his last address at an ASPO conference. According to him, it is now time for new generations to emerge, and hence his presence accompanied by a younger ASPO member. Jean-Luc is certainly a worthy receiver of such responsibility, but I don't think Jean will stop drawing graphs.

To finish this first morning came Mariano Marzo to address Gas Supply Security in Spain. This state is the 7th largest importer of Natural Gas in the EU (representing 32% of internal consumption), and the 3rd largest importer of LNG (68% of consumption). Spain is expected to be the fastest growing consumer of Natural Gas in the EU for the next 5 years, with most of this additional demand officially expected to be met with projects in North Africa and the Middle East that do not yet exist (and require many billions of dollars to take shape). But even with those projects, world re-gasification capacity will almost double liquefaction capacity for the next decade, casting serious doubts over such expectations. A shift in priorities is needed in Spain where an Energy revolution will have to take place.

After lunch the first address was by the Hon. Edward Schreyer, who dispensed with the traditional slide presentation. It was a different effect, showing that words can be at least as moving as nicely crafted graphs. Mr Schreyer started by exemplifying: according to the NAFTA agreement, Canada is not obliged to increase its energy supply to the USA, only to maintain the level of supply of the previous three years. Energy supplies to the USA have been growing simply because of Canada's greed. He went on to explain why the House of Commons has such name. It should be the place where the Common Property and Common Resources should be defended and managed; unfortunately the “infinitude” of the early New World shaped the psychic of the North American people making such task now difficult. The closing remarks where a call to reason of the leadership: the EIA/IEA scenarios that are optimistic to the point of irresponsibility, must now come down to reality; every country not working for harnessing all the renewable energy sources possible is being irresponsible.

I was supposed to close the morning session, but technical difficulties prevented so: I use OpenOffice but the pulpit's laptop only had Microsoft software; when I loaded my presentation some fonts where not being rendered. Fortunately, Mariano Marzo was kind to change places with me and Chris had brought his laptop so we could set all the text bits to plain Arial. My address didn't deviate much from the material presented here at TOD. The main update was the inclusion of preliminary assessments for Nigeria and Iraq, which even though optimistic, do not change the overall picture. Due to the fast depleting time available for speakers, I gave the presentation faster than would be advisable, and my English abandoned me a few times. Still I think the message got through: Exports have already peaked and nothing seems capable of changing that picture. For most states of the EU Oil has effectively peaked.

Then came Andrew MacKillop in his unique style. He showed that the OECD countries are the most vulnerable to depletion due to their high Oil and Gas intensity. Up to now, market-driven growth as failed to deliver Renewable Energy alternatives. Andrew claimed this was due to more and more money being spent on buyouts and asset refinancing, casting doubt on the usefulness of these alternatives. He proceeded to present what he called an energy Bretton-Woods agreement, a new international Framework with new institutions, e.g. an International Energy Fund substituting for the International Monetary Fund. He would conclude that the OECD needs NegaWatts, not MegaWatts.

I had to skip Chris Skebrowski's talk, so I could give a few interviews, but Chris provided a few notes:

Chris Skrebowski is a regular contributor to ASPO conferences. His message is familiar to many and growing every more convincing. A very best case scenario of a global peak is in 2011-12 at around 93 mbpd. This represents a geological potential coupled with the world’s oil companies making investments and working as hard as is plausible. A global depression changes the situation.

Skrebowski presented the following international picture:

• OECD production peaked in 1997 and has now declined by 2.2 million b/d (10.4%)
• Non-Opec, non-FSU production peaked in 2002, has now declined by 771,000 b/d (2.15%)
• North America/Mexico peaked in 1997
• North Sea - UK/Norway/Denmark peaked in 2000 now declined by 1.6 million b/d (25.4%)
• Around 28 significant producers in decline
• About 35% of global production from decliners

Followed by the corporate picture showing how production from the top 5 majors peaked in 2004: Chevron 2002, Shell 2003, Total 2004, BP 2005 and ExxonMobil in 2006.

Dozens of new projects started up over the last few years, bringing 2.5 mbpd of new oil the market in 2005, 3 mbpd in 2006 and over 3 mbpd in 2007. However during this period global flows remained flat. Skrebowski suggested an underlying decline rate of the fields already in production of 4.5% or around 3.7 bmpd. The important point to note is that this figure is three times the demand growth – depletion of supply is the main story in the global demand supply balance, not demand. This amount is also greater than all non-conventionals, and Skrebowski said the decline was increasing at 0.3-0.4 mbpd. per year.

Echoing Luis’ point on exports, the international trade in oil peaks before global production. Looking at where oil is used and therefore where impacts are felt and responses needed, road ransport sticks out. 55% of oil is used in road transport (compared with 25% in other transport, 10% for heat and 10% in non-fuel application). These simple numbers really frame the problem as one of road transport; there is hope in significantly reducing the vehicle miles driven whilst dramatically improving efficiency.

And then came another oildrummer, Ugo Bardi, to talk about the future of Mining. Ugo presented a comprehensive pictorial version of his posts on mining: Earth is a special planet where its geological activity created deposits of ores. By Mining, Man has been able to move ores from highly concentrated deposits to dispersed deposits. We don't face the risk of running out of minerals, but are facing the prospects of running out of energy to cross the Minearologic Barrier. Worldwide production of many metals is presenting maxima in profiles that seem to follow bell shaped curves. These kinds of curves can be justified assuming that part of the mining process profits are invested to increase production. Ugo ended with an interesting quote: “Energy is the ultimate raw material”.

Closing the final session of the day came Marcel Corderch with an address entitled “The Nuclear Illusion”. He started by showing a set of graphs depicting the growth of Nuclear power in the US: ordering of new reactors stopped in 1973, and after that year no new reactor was commissioned from scratch and completed. The Three Mile Island event had no visible impact on the US Nuclear program: apparently what killed Nuclear in the US was the first Oil Crisis. At the moment no reactor vendor is offering price stability, and hence the difficulties in growing the installations worldwide. Then came some numbers of a hypothetical Nuclear program: a Nuclear reactor has a mean life of 40 years and reaches break-even energy-wise in 7.9 to 14 years of operation (numbers from US academia), resulting in an EROEI around 3:1. If a program is put in place with the build up of 1 new reactor per year during 20 years, break even only arrives after 27 years (up front energy invested compounds). For a larger program with 20 new reactors per year during 20 years (totalling 400), the break even moves back to 32 years.

The day closed with Dick Lawrence summarizing the ASPO-USA conference. TOD covered it with several posts, so I'll just say that as with this conference, the work provided by TOD is highly regarded.

This was a gloomy day, with most graphs pointing downwards. Jérôme was an especially frustrated man: “Why complicate? Wind works,” he'd say often. In spite of being one of those responsible for the gloomy numbers, I shared that same frustration; a dinner among friends discussing the future was just the perfect finish for a stressful day.

Worldwide concern is growing over high oil prices, the security of supply of fossil fuels and its impact on many sectors of our society. Such concerns voiced at the oildrum over the past years are becoming part of the mainstream energy discussion. On 21 & 22 January 2009 a major business conference will be held in the Netherlands in which I am involved as an advisor in my role as President of ASPO Netherlands.

I invite you to come and listen to top executives and leaders from many industrial sectors who will explore the effects of high oil prices in their field of expertise or industry. Day 1 is dealing with political and macro economic aspects of changing oil supplies. Day 2 is teaching more about specific economic sectors, like Transport & Infrastructure, Food & Agriculture, Energy Systems and Chemicals & Materials.

There will be many speakers including Maria van der Hoeven (Dutch Minister of Economic Affairs), Matthew Simmons (invited), Peter de Wit (President Shell Netherlands), Kjell Aleklett (ASPO International), Jeremy Tomkinson (CEO The National Non-Food Crops Centre), Jörg Schindler (ASPO Germany) and Ger Bemer (CEO Royal Nedalco). For Conference Agenda and Registration, go to the the Permanent Oil Crisis website.

Under the fold, find the highlights from the program. Come to Amsterdam!

[break]

Plenary sessions on Wednesday, 21 January on political and macro economic aspects of changing oil supplies.

Presentations will include "Sustainable Energy for the Automotive Sector", "The oil export end game", "A geo-political perspective on the future of oil", "Oil market developments to 2030", "Limits to growth for tradition transportation fuels: can we find a timely substitute?", "Post oil energy supply: an investment opportunity", "Relationship between fossil fuel depletion and climate policy", "World food security and bioenergy policy".

Parallel sessions on Thursday, 22 January on Transport and Infrastructure, Chemicals and Materials, Food and Agriculture, Energy Systems, Coal and CCS, and Energy Investments

Presentations will include "Impact of energy costs and availability on the supply chain of food production and distribution", "Is electrification together with it's sources a replacement for oil and gas", "White biotechnology: replacing black gold?", "When plastics go green: technologies, markets & policies", "How to realize a clean and secure energy system", "Underground coal gasification, an expansion of the coal era?", "The impacts of higher energy prices on global food and agriculture", "More food, feed fiber and energy - can the world make it?", "Energy investment switch for a post oil world".

For details and registration see the conference website at
www.permanentoilcrisis.com

Santiago, Chile: ccLearn is hosting a three day conference on “open licensing, open technologies, and the future of education in Latin America” from November 19th to the 21st. The conference is split up into three meetings over the three days. 

Nov 19 is for Creative Commons International, where CC affiliates will meet to discuss the latest developments in licensing and other CC-related issues. Though this day of the conference is only CC, the latter two days are open to all. From the Latam Commons 2008 invitation:

“We are writing to invite you to join us in Santiago, Chile, on Nov 20-21, for a ground-breaking meeting about open licensing, open technologies, and the future of education in Latin America. The meeting on Nov 20 is called Latam Commons 2008: Creative Commons, Open Education, and the Public Domain. It is being co-hosted by ccLearn, the education division of Creative Commons, and Derechos Digitales.”

You can register for the Nov 20 meeting on Open Education here. Registration is free and open to anyone until we reach our capacity of 60. So register now to reserve your spot.

“Derechos Digitales is also hosting a seminar on the public domain on Nov 21, to which everyone is welcome.” There is no attendance limit on this day.

“Latam Commons 2008 is expected to include representatives of different organizations and projects in open education from throughout the Latin American region. The meeting will be a participatory gathering in which all attendees will be able to discuss a range of issues relevant to open education in Latin America, with the goal of developing a broad understanding of major education issues in the region and a focused vision of how open education and widely available educational resources can address these needs. As the workshop will be dynamic and discussion-based, we are inviting anyone interested in these issues to attend and contribute.

Please visit the registration page at: http://accesoalacultura.cl/registros-cclearn/ You can sign up for one or both of the meeting days at this site. Registration is free, and some meals will be provided for all registered participants. Visit the meeting wiki (http://derechosdigitales.org/wiki/Creative_Commons_Learn) for additional information about travel, lodging, and the meeting agenda.

This meeting is intended to catalyze conversations and projects that will continue after the meeting is over, and to build relationships among people and organizations so that we can bring our collective energies and resources to bear on common challenges for open education. Future meetings are already planned, and we look forward to seeing the progress on this global effort that grows out of Latam Commons 2008.

Please direct any questions or concerns to Ahrash Bissell, Grace Armstrong, or Claudio Ruiz. We hope to see you in Santiago.”

On Monday 20th and Tuesday 21st of October, Barcelona, Spain hosts the seventh annual international conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO). The programme is under the fold and includes papers from TOD staff Jérôme Guillet, Luís de Sousa and Ugo Bardi.

Most of The Oil Drum: Europe team will be there and we look forward to meeting you.

7th ASPO International Conference: Barcelona [break]

DAY ONE: Below Ground

DAY TWO: Above Ground. Renewables, Local Solutions and Social Issues

CEO of Creative Commons, Lawrence Lessig along with VP of Science Commons, John Wilbanks, and myself, Jon Phillips holder of the title of the “human inbox” of Creative Commons [1] will all be participating at the 1st International Creative Commons Korea conference, “Open Culture in CC” on Friday, March 14 in Seoul, Korea. Lessig will go big with his keynote, Wilbanks will be presenting “Information Sharing: A Universal Solvent for Life Sciences” and I will round up the CC pack with my new presentation: Share or Die: Collaborative Media Projects from Art to Business. Yes, that’s right! I will be wearing more of my art hat at this one, but will round it up by discussing how individual practice must be sustainable all the way up the ladder to a large scale web company.

These presentations are the tip of the iceberg as brilliant Korean colleagues will cover many topics as they relate to Korean society in the large global context and Chiaki Hayashi from Loftwork in Japan will discuss running a business where Creative Commons licensing is core to its daily function.

I’m quite eager though to interact with our Korean colleagues on the recently announced Creative Commons licensing integration into Naver. And, I should note that by looking at the web traffic at http://creativecommons.org, there is a massive surge from Korea since the Naver announcement. The CC Korea blog states:

On 26 February, Naver, one of the major portal service providers in Korea, announced that it officially introduces Creative Commons License to its blog and café services and began a grand campaign for promoting CCL with cartoons, videos, etc. As for the largest portal service provider in user size at home, Naver has been struggling with copyright infringements, content and blog posting piracy activities of users. In a hope to find a reliable solution against them, Naver has chosen to introduce the CC license scheme. And it is very welcomed.

Relatively belated, but thanks to their introduction, most of the Korean portal sites take part in CC licensing. With this announcement, Naver becomes the third next to Daum , which has already adopted CCL to its blog service in 2005, and Paran in 2007. These portal sites are known to grab more than 90% of Korea’s portal market.

The key thing to note with Naver’s CC licensing integration and as a service that effectively everyone with a net connection uses, is that Koreans now have CC licensing front-and-center. Many know that Korea takes the crown as the most wired nation with 95% broadband penetration inside the home [2]. Korea, is a hyper-connected homogenous society that now has CC licensing on the most used service in the country. How long will it take for Korea to take the title of the country with the highest level of Creative Commons license adoption per individual?

UPDATE: Michelle already wrote a stellar blog post about the conference btw.

[1] Ok, ok, my long form title is Community and Business Development Manager.
[2] Trust me. From living in Korea, I’ve seen four year olds with cellphones on the Internet! What? And, now that I’m living 50% of my time in Guangzhou, China (the other 50 ‘cent in San Francisco), I’m feeling the burn without that 100 megabit in the home. Try 1 megabit for me…if I’m lucky!