Paddy Power offering on next election being in what year.

2008 28-1

2009 8-1

2010 7-2

2011 6-4

2012 evens

I am not a betting man but some very good value bets there.

The local elections will be around May next year. But to be able to vote you need to be on the register of elections for 2009. Which is to be published in February. However the Draft electoral register is coming up in November. So make sure you are on the register.

And then you can’t complain that you get told in time to register to vote. Because I told ya See this is when rock the vote should be in operation.

The term save your bacon was first recorded in 1654. What the origin of the phrase is unclear. Maybe bacon was expensive back then and to save it, was to save something precious. To a politician nothing is more precious then their seat. It is their job, their symbol their power it makes them what they are. Of late we have seen a few politicians grabbing life jackets from the S.S Fianna Fail Green promising to jump ship if the over 70s thing went true the likes of Matty McGrath. While some minor figures The young Healy Rae,  Thomas Welby (PD Galway Councillor) have jumped ship and a big figure in Finian McGrath.

Now they say that this is because they were principled about the issue. But in reality they think that the ship is going down. So far the Greens have been very stable. Rowing in behind the FF tiller. (I know i started with a bacon metaphor I should have bacon puns. Suggestions welcome.)  Considering the humming and hawing the PD’s did over Bertie Gate their response has been remarkably loyal. However how much can they let this go? With these measures Labour must be eating into their ABC demographic. While the other independents are still supportive their is only so far pork barrel politics can get you. This budget is turning into poison chalice and will go down in the annals beside VAT on childern shoes.

The desire to stay loyal to the party is strong but the desire to save your own bacon is greater. How long this government can stay afloat is questionable. If we have an election in 6 months I would not be surprised. Certainly with the Bacon saving I think I am not the only one. 

The question is where do these people go? The civil war ties are possibly too great to allow a mass jump of FF to FG. Can anyone think of someone looking to form a party??????

One of the biggest stories about the state of the Irish Economy came out on Friday to little notice. 

THE IRISH Financial Services Regulatory Authority has instructed accountants PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) to assess the extent to which the banks are delaying the collection of interest payments on loans to builders and property developers.

If banks are not collecting interest on loans it is pretty clear that with the current state of finance they consider that there is no money to collect. If a company can not pay its interest it will probably go bust dumping a massive bad debt on to the banks balance sheet (and the tax payers laps).

Keep your eyes open for that report in the next few weeks.  Also from the article

AIB said at the bank’s half-year results presentation, also in July, that it was “rolling up” interest for some property developers as there was no activity in the property market and no cash being generated to repay interest.

The bank said it was adopting “a very supportive approach

Emmm

Fianna Fail have in their defence against  James Reilly Fine Gael’s spokesman on health attacks on the medical card for pensioners debacle. Have mentioned that James Reilly was head of the IMO when Fianna Fail negotiated the deal with them which was very generous (Or so Fianna Fail say). This seems to be trying to discredit  James Reilly by making himself out to be a greedy doctor. Now this might be true but it is hardly relevant. As head of the IMO his duty was to get the best deal for his members. If he did not it would show a large disregard for his responsibilities and would say more about his inability to be a minister in waiting then being a greedy doctor. Fianna Fail signed up for the deal in the end, they decided what he offered was good enough to accept. So really it is not relevant at all to this discussion.

A few Fianna Failers are against the removal of automatic intitlement of medical cards to pensioners. Will update the list during the day. If you hear anyone else let me know. The government majority is 5. ( Correct me if I am wrong? )

Jim McDaid (On Newstalk)

Matty McGrath (On Newstalk suggested a few cent tax on txt messages instead)

Jim McDaid is on Newstalk going against the current Medical Card Fiasco seemingly putting the blame squarly at the PD’s or should I say Mary Harney.  Saying that Mary has taken it the wrong direction. He also seemed to indicate that he will vote against the bill.  This is again Fianna Fail playing its own opposition and will probably succeed in bringing this bill down. Although Jim McDaid is a bit of a lose cannon so you don’t know what he is at.  While Eamon Gilmore’s tack is

The Leader of the Labour Party, Eamon Gilmore TD, has written to Professor Brendan Drumm challenging the legal authority of the HSE to require persons over 70 to return means test forms for medical cards in advance of the enactment of appropriate legislation by the Oireachtas.

I wonder if this will be stopped by Fianna Fail backbenchers giving them a bit of a leg up. While this also caused all the other measures in the budget to be ignored. Is the opposition going to be out foxed?

So basically the question is, Is this Vat on Childern shoes? Or clever politics? I think it is more the former but never rule out the later.

Update : Matty McGrath FF Tipp South out against it.

From IMF 

I am sure many aspects of the budget will be discussed by bloggers in the next few days. And indeed the papers are full of it. But One thing that I want to have a look at is the increase in University Registration Charges to €1,500. When are we going to stop the pretence that we have a free third level education system? We have a subsides one. By calling it a registration fee we are just deluding our selves (maybe what FF want us to do) that it is free. Its not the government just subsides about 66% of the cost. 

Whether that is good or not is of course another story.

From RTE.

Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny has announced he is taking a 5% pay cut next year, as a symbolic gesture.

He was speaking at the launch of Fine Gael’s Budget proposals, which include 5,000 voluntary redundancies in the civil service.

The party is also suggesting a freeze on pay rises and increments for those in the public sector earning more than €50,000 a year.

Now a TD’s salary is about €96,650 so with his 5% pay cut he is going to now earn  €91,817. Well whoopyty do Mr Kenny. What a sacrifice. In 1997 you earned €44,067 so you are still on over double that. A Westminster MP earns €77,405. So to tell you the truth if this is supposed to impress me or make me think that you are more on the side of the people who are struggling now it doesn’t. Joe Higgins did and I believe the Sinn Fein TD’s still do earn the average industrial wage of around €33,000 that I can respect.

Earning  €91,817 is not symbolic of the failing economy it is a symbol of the high salaried people who got us into this mess.

Pure bull PR stunt. Take a 66% pay cut then we can take about symbolic gestures. Because this is shambolic. (Like the word play )