Although it might not look like it now Brian Cowen has the chance to become a legend. On his own lunch box anyway, The EU is in crisis and not the crisis that is headlining today. But a crisis that has been building up for the last 15 years.

Eurobaramoter is the EU polling agency to find out what people think of the EU and one fact that comes from it. Is that people across Europe are gradually being to dislike the EU. Back in 1991 71% of people in the EU thought that EU membership was a good thing. Now it is 58%. Funnily enough Ireland has the third highest positive response to that question with 74% saying it is positive. (The Dutch and Luxembourgers are higher.)  Europe is slowly losing the people. The response to this seems to be belligerence.

In many ways peoples apathy and distance from Europe is the cause of peoples apathy and distance from Europe.  People in Europe don’t vote in general elections based on a parties European policy. They vote on domestic issues. Parties are given free rain to do what they want not what the people want to do in Europe. After the rejection of the EU constitution in France and Holland the Lisbon treat was created to avoid referendums.But how long can this apathy last. Could the European elections soon herald a boost for euro sceptics?

The EU is asking Brian Cowen why this happened and what to do about it. This offers a opportunity. There seems to be an attempt by many of the pro-EU people in the media to spin it as Irish people voting against Abortion. As if Abortion was the main issue in this campaign. The polling in the Irish Times tells us alot.

The largest 2 blocks of voting no were Not knowing what it was about, and the loss of power( add big countries have to much power to this list). Together they account for 62% of the No. That is almost 32% of the people who voted.  While spinning the vote as to do with Abortion helps reinforce some peoples opinion that only non-decent people vote to no to EU treaties.

It will be interesting to see if the rest of Europe pushes on with the EU treaty. While some are calling for the eviction of Ireland from the EU. Annegrethe Rasmussen in the Danish Information paper. (Translated with google translator) said

The Irish have now said no twice in the same decade to the EU treaty. It might be reasonable to ask them whether they would not choose a looser ties to the European Union such as. Norway or Switzerland.

Yes we the people have vote no to the last 2 treaties but we are the only nation to have voted on the last two treaties. 4 nations got to vote on the constitution Spain, Luxembourg, France and Holland. Did people call for France and Holland to be excluded from the EU? No of course not. So why is Ireland different? In many ways that question answers why Irish people voted no. The Irish feel vulnerable to being marginalised, seen ignorable by much of the rest of Europe the reaction of the Sarkozy and Merkel to plough on regardless even though the rejection by the French and the Dutch resulted in the stopping of the process.

But this gets away from my point and the making of Brian Cowen. The Lisbon Treaty is not the EU and the EU is not the Lisbon Treaty. A vote against the Lisbon Treaty is not a vote against the EU. Governments have worked hard on creating the Lisbon Treaty and rather then consider the idea of coming up with a treaty that could pass referendums in every country  they would rather drop Ireland. This is where Cowen can come in.

The leaders of Europe are going to ask him what can be done to solve this crisis and he can say “a better treaty” and propose foundations of Europe that can be supported by the people. We have discussed some alternatives before. Cowen could be the guy who creates a new better Europe. Whether or not they listen is of course another thing and whether or not Cowen can come up with something good remains to be seen. .

Well that really is the question to be asked. Where do we go now. The rest of Europe seems intent on ploughing through with the text but it will not be easy. Ireland was the only country to ratify this by the people lending it a large amount of respect. It makes it alot harder to challenge. If we said no and every other country said yes in referendums that would be one thing. But this is not the case.  Also Ireland as a member of the Euro and one of the most pro-Europe country makes it harder to dismiss unlike if it was they UK. So if we look at some of the problems what are the quick fix solutions. (I don’t know a lot of how Europe works so forgive my naivety )

Loss of commissioners: The main reason for reducing the number of commissions is that there is not enough tasks for 27 commissioners. Which is fair enough but what lost Irish voters is that we would lose a seat at the commission table that discussions that would effect us we would  have no say in. So a solution to this maybe be to continue to have 27 but have 9 of them being commissioners without portfolio. I.e each country has a vote and a seat at the table.  But only 18 have a portfolio.

Tax Concerns: Write into the Treaty. “The EU will never ever ever touch Ireland’s tax rates cross are hearts and hope to die. NEVER NEVER” I.E very bluntly.

Comments from Europe: French Foreign Ministers should be banned from talking.

Self Amending: The No side had an argument that once we signed this then all other treaties could be done without referendum. We in Ireland like the idea of referendums We like the idea of bring power closer to the people. This would need to be copper fastened.

Treaty: The treaty was a mess 247 pages and not understandable. Shorten it and rewrite it clearer. James Zogby in the huff post said.

A treaty for, by, and of the bureaucrats won’t be voted on favorably by a public that has grown mistrustful of bureaucrats.

Implementing some off those policies and I think you would get it to pass in a second referendum. But that is far from the ideal solution. Europe needs to go back to the people all the people. And find out what it is about. 5 peoples have had a say on this text 5 of the most Europhile countries. Three have said no. Quick fix solutions are not the way forward. To dismiss that and plough on through with this will make Europe worse. Ratifying by parliaments is not the way forward. Parliaments are elected by people on domestic issues not on European. To suggest that the rest of Europe has given then a mandate to approve these measures is naive. Some how though I don’t think the EU has the balls to ask the people what they want. They will tack in a few Irish solutions and we will vote again.  Paddy Power are offering 5-2 definitely worth a fiver. 

All the other problems with the referndum are Messers Cowen, Kenny and Gilmores.

6. Negativity and the French . Through out the campaign Much of the talk about the treaty was how we will become isolated , how we will be damaged and this negativity was totally encapsulated by French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner stupid quote of the campaign. The Irish will come “the first Victims” if this is rejected. It is a bit of a cliced but Ireland are a nation with “a victim mentality” We feel easily threatened and respond to it with a kind of “F**K You bravado. Some people who would have voted yes voted no just to stand up to the perceived bullying. If you say to people, do what I say or suffer people will not always back down and most cases face down the received bullying

5. Fighting the Ellite. The way the treaty was sold was terrible. One of the ways it was sold was by the great and the good acting condescendingly to the no side. There seemed to be an atmosphere of we are your betters trust us. This came from all the political parties and the media. Last night Fintan O’Toole said on BBC Newsnight that the reason it was rejected was because of Bertie Ahern making people distrustful of politicians. This is nonsense. People were distrustful of politicians far before that. Indeed we have been distrustful of anyone in power since the year dot. The fact that the likes of Fintan O’Toole stated that this is the reason is itself condescending to people who voted no. Insinuating that the no vote is not a vote against the Treaty but against the Bertie Ahern is in itself elitist. Making it seem that the no voters could not make up there minds themselves. This sort of establishment mentality of trivializing the no concerns made people more belligerent and vote no. The political parties also seemed to be talking down to the electorate. Presuming that the people would do what they say and not think for themselves. They seemed to sell the fact they themselves were saying yes rather then the contents of the treaty

4. EU Spokespeople: Lucinda and Dick Roche were not the ideal people to do early running setting out the Yes agenda while the others waited to see who would succeed Bertie Ahern. While they went much quieter towards the end of the campaign, my own experience was that they were as likely to turn people off their position or voting than support them. It defies logic to my mind that Ahern put Dick in there since he needed to sell strong on the treaty. The spokespeople on the no side might not have been any great shakes either but they had the advantage of a natural scepticism from the electorate.

3. Voting no was ‘pro-EU’: For the first time in the history of EU referenda in this country it was legitimately presented that a vote against the Lisbon treaty was a vote in favour of Europe. The people who consider themselves pro-EU were never able to rationalise a no vote in this way before since most of those opposed to EU would end up taking us out of Europe. The benefit that Libertas brought was an economically minded argument in support of the present EU which allowed those who were “neither hard left nor hard right” to vote against Lisbon and remain supportive of the EU as it is at present. That swung more people than the core 20% against Europe and allowed the no vote to win the day.

2. Class Voting: Ireland has seen an extensive sociological change over the past ten years but it is inescapable that the referendum results point to a stark difference between the more well off in this country and middle class, working class, labourers, farmers etc. Rural Ireland, fishing villages, poorer constituencies all went against Lisbon. Wealthier areas supported Lisbon but - tellingly - there were not enough of them to carry the day. Class may not have dominated our politics but the divide today suggests that a break exists between the establishment, their supporters and the rest of the country. To what extent this informs future politics is difficult to tell but I suspect that upon having delivered a swift kick to the arse, the electorate will revert to type.

1. The Treaty. The Treaty had three flaws that made it lose. One was the loss of a commissioner the other was its length. The EU is seen as a distant entity away from the control of the people. The idea that Ireland would lose what little control they had scarred people. The idea that we could have no say in important matters is not something people wanted to consider and rejected it. The control of Taxes were not set in stone. No one knew what the future of low tax Ireland would be.  The other fault with the treaty is its length. It was too long, too confusing and too hard to read. The fact that McCreavy and Cowen said they didn’t read it certainly did not help. People were not clear about what they were signing up to. And the debates seem more intent on warning us of impending doom then selling the treaty. Kevin Myres said.

The final argument from the ‘Yes’ camp is that the ‘No’ side really doesn’t understand Lisbon. And, for once, they’re right. So why should I say ‘Yes’ to a legal document I don’t understand? My lawyer would never urge me to buy a house under such conditions.

Why would we follow different rules when voting for the future of our country?

And in the end people said I wouldn’t follow different rules and voted No.

Thanks to Cian on help in drafting this post

There is many reason for the no vote. Which we have covered but what Reasons given as Reasons are not Reasons.

6. Xenophobia. Some people think that this was an Irish vote against immigrants. It wasn’t. There was very little talk about immigrants on the run up to the election. It simple was not on the rader.

5. Sinn Fein. True Sinn Fein has support but it is very small. Certainly not enough to be significant in this referendum. Indeed the fact that Sinn Fein were voting no probably sent more to the yes side. Ditto for Youth Defence.

4. A vote against the government. This is probably a controversial one to put in this list. But I don’t think this was an anti-government vote. In the polls the government are doing well and the opposition badly it would seem unlikely as polls show the main opposition parties also suffering that this is the case.

3 Micro chipping babies, forcing prostitution on us. Nobody really believed the crazies

2 Arguments made by me in the comments section of this blog. No one listens to me

1. Fear of the EU being part of an Illuminati World Government of freemasons who caused 9/11. This cause one no vote. Jim Corr.

From AFP

LONDON (AFP) — The dollar rose against the euro and the yen on Friday amid a Group of Eight finance meeting in Japan, with analysts keen to see whether ministers will back US efforts to strengthen the dollar.

The euro, meanwhile, was pressured by growing concerns that Irish voters could reject a crucial European Union (EU) referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

The European single currency fell to 1.5395 dollars in early London trading from 1.5435 in New York late on Thursday.

Edit 12:12 - As tallies finish up the sides have narrowed but the no side remain ahead. Estimates are now for ‘yes’ votes in a number of Leinster constituencies - Meath East, Dublin South, DSE, Dun Laoghaire, Laois-Offaly, Kildare North/South. Counting begins at 12.00

RTE are reporting Early Tallies and it seems that the No vote is in the lead. These are very early tallies on Few boxes. More during the day.

Working class areas of the capital are reported to be voting two to one against Lisbon, while the vote is more evenly split in middle class districts. In Donegal North East, with 10% of boxes opened, not one has a Yes majority, while in Tipperary North, political sources are predicting that the result will be very close, and in Wicklow.

From Pat Kennny via p.ie
Yes No
Dublin
50 50
33 67
45 55
40 60
50 50
40 60
27 73
30 70
40 60
40 60

Limk W 41 59
Limk E 36 64
Tipp N 50 50
Tipp S 51 49
Clare 49 51
Cork NC 35 65

Cork SC 45 55
Waterford 50 50

Kerry Nth 40 60

Galway 46 54

Mayo 40 60

Donegal SW 45 55

Donegal NE 37 63

SLigo N Leitrim 33 66

Roscommon S Leitrim 45 55

Average is 42% yes 58% no

So now the debate is done. So make sure you vote today.

I probably should post some rock the vote video but no. I’ll just post some rock.

Is it just me or is the main technique used by the yes campaign scare tactics. You would expect it from the no but if this is such  worthwhile treaty shouldn’t it be argued on the merits of the treaty? Should the yes campaign be resorting to the Ireland will be doomed argument. People don’t like to be pushed into corners, Irish people don’t like to be told how they should vote. It seems to me with comments such as From RTE

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has warned that Ireland would pay a high price if it rejects the Lisbon Treaty in the referendum this week.

Mr Kouchner said a ‘No’ vote from the Irish would be greeted with ‘gigantic incomprehension’ from the rest of Europe.

He said: ‘The first victims would be the Irish. They have benefited more than others.

Victims? Looking at the definition in the dictionary.

a person or animal subjected to death, suffering, ill-treatment or trickery

So if we are to vote no we we are going to be subjected to something? That the consequences will not just be a back to the drawing board but the EU purposely going out of its way to hurt Ireland? And they wonder why they are down in the polls? This kind of rhetoric is just what the no side want.   Dear god these people are imbiciles.

I know I have been quiet of late in these parts trying to cut down on my time spent discussing politics. Anyway this story is forcing me to come out of retirement.

Cork South-West TD Christy O’Sullivan has said he is deeply embarrassed after being arrested on suspicion of drink driving over the bank holiday weekend.

The 59-year-old Fianna Fáil politician has apologised after failing a breath test near Clonakilty on Monday.

Apologised apologised. For god sake the government is trying to bring down road deaths which drink driving is a major part of. Cowen should deal with this. My guess like Eamon Gilmore with Kathleen Lynch he will do nothing.

The governments proposals on curbing Alcohol are in a word useless.

Under the provisions of a draft Bill, off-licences would have to close by 10pm each night and gardaí would be allowed to seize alcohol if they suspected someone may breach public order.

Gardaí would also be allowed to test pubs and other outlets by sending in underage people to try to buy drink, in order to expose breaches of the law.

The bill would also make it a statutory requirement for late-opening pubs and nightclubs to have CCTV systems in place.

Where alcohol is on display in supermarkets and convenience stores it would have to be in a structurally separate area and if that was not possible it would have to be sold from behind a counter.

This is going to achieve absolutely nothing. Putting the price of alcohol would do nothing (well put it at 40 quid a pint maybe but throw 3 euro on the price pint nada). We in Ireland as a nation have a drink problem. Being paralytic drunk vomiting on the streets is grand. How many people do not take pride that Ireland tops so many drinking tables, who has not gone to some foreigner sure we Irish can drink ye under the table?

The object of a night out is to get drunk. Doing to useless measure as shutting off-licenses will not change that culture. It will not stop alcohol related abuse in the home and in society, It will not do any of this. Places in Europe without our drink culture have longer opening hours do they have rampant alcohol abuse? No. The point is no law the government is going to pass is going to make

Jesus I was fucking locked last night

Redundant as a perfectly normal and worthy statement for many people. Truly addressing drink culture is going to take more then offies closing at 10. But that law is easy to pass. The real solution which I don’t know what it is  is far harder to do and probably beyond the means of most politicians hence we get “alcohol must be display in structurally separate area” as the solution to all our problems