This one I didn’t want to post on until Lisbon was over with and today’s front page Business Post story gives me the perfect segue.

Sunday Business Post:

The Government is conducting a major spending review which is expected to lead to…capital projects being scaled back…Particular emphasis is being placed on capital spending in education and health, which accounts for large elements of government expenditure.

Noel Whelan (Irish Times, Last Saturday):

No consideration appears to have been given to whether the current, temporary difficulties in the public finances should be addressed by tax increases.

Incomes in Ireland are currently under-taxed. The fact that Irish workers are the lowest taxed in Europe was emphasised this week by Brendan Butler of Ibec, not in response to the publication of the exchequer returns but during the debate on the Lisbon Treaty

I never really know what to make of Noel Whelan, he is known to be very close to Fianna Fail and it is often tempting to read him on a Saturday as an extension of thinking which is quite close to the top of Fianna Fail. If that is the manner in which to read him then last Saturday was a quiet piece of political kite-flying, that favourite passtime of politicians or a solo-run-also a favourite.

Cowen himself has never talked of tax increases on wages, have never brought it about at budget but he did commit himself wholeheartedly to the National Development Plan which secured funding for capital spending in health and education as well as roads and infrastructure. Perhaps the government reckon that they can put up taxes in certain parts of the economy and finance the capital spend out of that. It would be very interesting to hear government make that argument to people, tell them the tax we pay does not finance the public services we want.

This is especially so in education and health where primary schools get 50% less per child than secondary and some of our universities are crumbling and our hospitals and health system where….well how long have you got? Tony Blair got people onside to invest in services in the UK after 20 years of Thatcherism, could or would Cowen do the same here? In very simple terms it is investing in our future for spending in these areas is not an indulgence if we do not want to get locked into a cycle of boom and bust, binge and purge, like the past.

Intersting analysis over at Open Democracy about the reasons Lisbon was rejected and an attempt to conceptualise the ‘democratic deficit’ that was apparently at the heart of the rejection. It is interesting from perusing the papers today that this analysis is taking a lot of hold, that it was the local context that informed voters perspective on Europe.

I am not sure there can be any other way of approaching this short of asking all people to be European citizens in the fullest possible sense of identification.

As Richard Sinnott outlined in the Irish Times yesterday, that is a huge ask of a country where 59% describe themselves as solely “Irish”. The analysis is interesting for it suggests that the lack of a joined up system between the EU, our executive which negotiates treaties, the Dail and the media/public is what constitutes a lack of democracy in Europe. That the EU itself is ok but the procedures in this country for connecting voters to it, plugging them in and getting the buy-in or cache that wins referenda is not there. They may not be off the mark in one sense, school water charges anyone?.

Yet there is a more fundamental disconnect expressed here, I think the word that swung many voters was consolidation because pro-EU as we may be we do not want a Federal State. There is a chaotic element to Europe that is reassuring to voters, it tells them that no one is in charge per se and it remains an intergovernmental plaything at its very core. The idea of consolidation, of rationalising, of tidying up is a bridge too far at present. The idea hints at a centrality and organisation that we are more familiar with at national level, an ability to organise policy and law from the centre. It did not need to be spelled out because it was not a rational argument, it was an emotive response.

Like a pavlovian response, voters were presented with a “consolidating” treaty and thought, hang on. They didn’t do it in huge numbers, 53%-46% is not a landslide, but they did it in far greater numbers than in Nice I with a lot of “soft no” votes coming down to vote and abandoning the 60% pro-EU majority that seems to be latent in the country. Most notable voters in this regard were Munster and Connaught voters who saw this as a step they would not take - by as much as 60% - 40% in some cases.

Personally I think it was far more than a democratic deficit that swung it, dislocated social groups were wary of voting in favour of distant sites of governance (real or perceived). When the socio-economic activity is moving rapidly out of their locality and either outsourcing abroad or drying up as an industry the desire and impulse is, naturally, to retain control as locally as possible.

Keith has a really great post on Lisbon (not least for his Martin pic). He has four ways Europe can resurrect the defeat from Lisbon number 4 is my favourite but hop over to read the rest.

Don’t be so bloody patronising.

Feel free to check out the t-shirt shop aswell. Some new EU ones up there too.

Brian Cowen, Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore will be more uncomfortable tonight than simply for losing an election. In their own ways they will each feel the pressure of having to face the fallout of a no vote. While it is easy to explain the no as a rejection of the entire establishment, that explanation does not really help the leaders of the three main political parties in the country.

Yesterday they lost the Lisbon referendum for a number of reasons, not least the inability of the yes campaign to parse their arguments in ways that resonated with voters. When all of the ‘plan a’ failed, it was a case of resort to namecalling/intimidation/scare-mongering. All of this was done with various degrees of media help in an environment where any political scientist would have said they could not lose. But, lost they did and today they all face unique problems as a result.

Cowen: As head of government he is paradoxically quite secure. His party will rally around him as they always do, out of a sense of loyalty. In Europe and at home he will be besieged. Pressure on him to deliver some fix, some workaround will be immense as well as him have to face the shame (should it really be shaming?) of going to a European Council meeting and explaining our ‘no’ vote. He does not have to face any leadership challegne for the spin will allow him to get on with things in the business of government.

Yet this should not fool us, he is in deep trouble. The electorate that voted were making a statement against some of the orthodoxy of current economic governance. They decided all parties were illegitimate brokers for their concerns - fishing, farming, labouring, manufacturing - and opted to support independent minded TDs and non-governmental bodies campaigning for a no vote. Cowen cannot afford to ignore such a trend in the FF heartland of rural Ireland.

The loss of fishing, farming and urban C2DE votes will harm him in the local elections. Not only does he have to face Europe and work something out to their satisfaction, he has to remain cognisant of what voters want and why they voted as they did. A balancing act in which I do not envy him.

Enda Kenny: I made a point of suggesting that Cowen is a safe leader because it now seems clear that Enda Kenny is not. He failed to carry his own Mayo constituency - as opposed to last May when 3 Fine Gael TDs were elected. Rumours have abounded since the last election of a possible move against Kenny, in the belief that he would be unable to move the party beyond their current position in 2012. The fact now exists that his attempt to direct a European campaign, aided by some big-name FG heads, was a failure. His decision to appoint Creighton as EU spokesperson did not pay off, his party could not convince its own voters to vote yes and he could not impose himself on the campaign.

Yes he is in opposition but Fine Gael has long been Ireland’s most European party, unflinchingly supportive of all EU measures. This is a rich electorate to tap for an opposition leader seeking to showcase his skills as a leader of men. It didnt happen and his party will look at next year’s local elections with some trepidation. Cowen and FF remain at 42% despite the Lisbon disaster yet Fine Gael are back to he bad old days of 23%. Knives will be sharpened and Kenny will have to fight for his life if he is to keep leadership, perhaps the injection of life is not a bad thing…..

Eamon Gilmore: Eamon Gilmore is in many ways a simple analysis but also a complicated one. First of all he is a leader of the third party, a social democratic party. He wanted a yes vote, on paper his core constituency of C2DE voters voted no. That break with the party ‘elite’ and its core vote is not isolated but is perhaps most worrying for Labour. If this was a mid-term kicking then they are alright but if those voters in urban Dublin see the Labour party as one they cannot identify with then trouble beckons. Lots of workigin class voters and constituencies voted no. Labour wanted yes. Therein lies the rub. That is the simple part.

The complicated part is Gilmore’s authority. After Ruairi Quinn’s solo run as IAE Chairperson there are issues about how Gilmore was leading his party. Who was the main Labour person on the campaign trail? Who was the one to whom we were listening for the Labour perspective? That division was not a clearcut handicap to Gilmore but it can easily be seen as such. If that is the case he also has a great deal of work to do to reassert his authority, link with his core electorate and prove Labour is in chime with these.

Below the fold is the live results as we get them (check RTE.ie, Referendum.ie and ourselves) -if we miss a few drop them in the comments please. Follow our Twitter for first results.

Running total:

Yes: 46.6% No: 53.4%

In Favour: 752,451 Against: 862,415 Turnout: 53.13%

Carlow-Kilkenny

Yes 50% No 50%

In favour: 26,210 Against: 26,206

Cork East

Yes: 43.0% No: 56.96%

In Favour: 18,177 Against: 24,052

Cork North-Central

Yes: 35.56% No:64.44%

In Favour: 12,440 Against: 22,546

Cork South Central

Yes: 44.87% No: 55.13%

In Favour: 22,112 Against: 27,166

Cork North West

Yes: 46.12% No: 53.88%

In Favour: 16,253 Against: 18,991

Cork South West

Yes 44.43% 55.57%

In Favour: 14,235 Against: 17,806

Clare

Yes: 51.84% No: 48.16%

In Favour: 20,982 Against: 19,490

Donegal North East

Yes: 35.3 No: 64.7%

In FAvour: 9,00 Against: 16,504

Donegal South-West

Yes: 36.55% No: 63.45%

In Favour: 10,174 Against: 17,659

Dublin Central

Yes: 43.8% No: 56.2%

In favour: 12,328 Against: 15,816

Dublin Mid-West

Yes: 39.6 no: 60.4

In favour: 12,577 Against:19,182

Dublin North

Yes 50.56% No: 49.44%

In Favour: 22,696 Against: 22,194

Dublin North Central

Yes: 50.6% No:49.4%

In Favour: 15,772 Against: 15,396

Dublin North-West

Yes:36.38% No:63.62%

In FAvour: 9,576 Against:16,749

Dublin South

Yes: 62.88% No: 37.12%

In favour: 32,190 Against: 19,005

Dublin South Central

Yes: 39.04% No: 60.96%

In Favour: 16,410 Against: 25,624

Dublin South East

Yes 61.65% No: 38.35%

In Favour: 17,111 Against: 10,644

Dublin South West:

Yes: 35% No: 65%

In FAvour: 12,601 Against: 23,456

Dublin WEst

Yes: 47.92% Yes: 52.08%

In Favour: 13,573 Against: 14,754

Dun Laoghaire

Yes: 63.46% NO: 36.54%

In FAvour: 31,524 Against: 18,149

Galway East

Yes:46.87% No: 53.13%

In Favour: 18,728 Against:21,230

Galway West

Yes:46.05% No: 53.95%

In Favour: 19,643 Votes Against: 23,011

Kildare North

Yes: 54.62% No: 45.38%

In Favour: 20,045 Against: 18,149

Kildrare South

Yes: 48.49% No: 51.51%

In Favour: 13,470 Against: 14,308

Kerry North:

Yes 40.37% No: 59.63%

Votes in favour: 11,306 Votes against: 16,702

Kerry South:

Yes 43% No: 57%

Votes in favour: 11,569 Votes Against: 15,571

Laois Offaly

Yes: 56.01% No:43.99%

In Favour: 31,786 Against 24,963:

Limerick East

Yes: 46.05% No: 53.95%

In Favour: 18,085 Against: 21,191

Limerick West

Yes: 44.65% No:55.35%

In Favour: 13,318 Against: 16,511

Longford-Westmeath

Yes: 46.26% No: 53.74%

In Favour: 19,371 Against: 22,502

Louth:

yes: 41.86% no: 58.14%

In Favour: 18,585 Against: 25,811

Mayo

Yes 38.3% No 61.7%

In favour: 18,624 Against: 30,001

Meath East

Yes: 50.94% No: 49.06%

In Favour: 17,340 Against: 16,703

Meath West

Yes: 44.48% No: 55.52%

In FAvour: 14,442 Against: 18,028

Roscommon South Leitrim:

Yes: 45.61% No: 54.39%

In Favour: 15,429 Against: 18,402

Tipperary North:

Yes: 49.8% No: 50.2%

Votes in Favour: 16,235 Votes Against: 16,367

Tipperary South:

Yes; 46.8% No: 53.2%

Votes for: 13,853 Votes against: 15,755

Sligo North Leitrim:

Yes:43.3% No: 56.6%

Votes in favour: 12,602 Votes against: 16 496

Waterford Result is in:

45.7% Yes 54.3% No

Votes in favour: 17,502 Votes Against: 20,812

Wexford

Yes 43.96% No 56.04%

In Fav: 23,371 Against: 29,793

Wicklow

Yes: 49.81% No: 50.19%

In Favour: 25,936 Against: 26,130

He was speaking after the no vote and it was very brief. Barroso though did point up the major EU talking point over the next couple of days.

18 States have approved the Treaty and the remaining ratifications should continue their course. European institutions will continue to work delivering for citizens of Europe.

At various points this morning, Dermot Ahern former Foreign Affairs Minister, Micheal Martin current foreign affairs minister and Enda Kenny leader of Fine Gael have said that the vote is now almost certainly a ‘no’.

Martin on RTE Radio: “when you are explaining your losing” “its not looking good for the Yes side”

Dermot Ahern: “from my own count centre its 42-58 and it looks like that wont be changed around:

Kenny suggested that Mayo will go ‘no’ earlier this morning.

If you follow our twiitter, you know the Dublin South East, Dublin South, Dun Laoghaire and Laois Offaly are all showing a yes vote - isolated at this stage in the entire country.

With 70%-80% of boxes open in the Dublin constituencies:

DSE 60 40 Dublin South 60 40 Dun Laoghaire 65 35 and these are reasonably secure tallies. The question is will the volume of the urban ‘yes’ vote be enough to overcome a widespread rural ‘no’ vote as the day wears on.  A 45% turnout suggests it will be a tough ask.

Whatever the result in the referendum later - and at this stage it looks like a no - recriminations and blame will be handed out over the nature of the yes campaign. The first evidence of this was a while back when Cowen wanted Fine Gael to up their game. Today we see more of this as angry backbenchers in Fianna Fail attack their MEPs for a very quiet performance.

Surely not attempting to deflect from an inability to deliver their constituency (as Cowen demanded). We might also want to watch Bertie Ahern being credited for this loss, the lack of government movement early enough, the scary no vote going “unchallenged”, the backlash against the economy/globalisation/EU defence. Perhaps reading Donncha’s post will enlighten the analysis.

Polls shut at 10.00 and before leaving us this evening Mark Little gave an early projection of turnout at the mid-40% range. If that is the case it may be a tight day tomorrow. What can we expect if rural Ireland did stay at home as seemed to be insinuated throughout the day?