The June 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.42 MB, 21 pp).

Figure 1 - World Liquids Fuel Production January 2002 - May 2008

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.[break]

Latest Developments:

1) Total liquids - In May world production of total liquids increased by 490,000 barrels per day from April according to the latest figures of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Resulting in total world liquids production of 86.60 million b/d. Average global production in 2007 was 85.41 million b/d according to the IEA. In the first five months of 2008 an average of 86.82 million b/d was produced. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in their International Petroleum Monthly puts average global 2007 production at 84.55 million b/d and the first three months of 2008 at 85.70 million b/d.

2) Conventional crude - Latest available figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production including lease condensates decreased by 134,000 b/d from February to March. All time high crude oil production now stands at 74.63 million b/d in February 2008.

A selection of charts from this edition:

Figure 2 - World Crude Oil Production January 2002 - Narch 2008

Figure 3 - Non-OPEC Crude Oil Production January 2002 - Narch 2008

Figure 4 - Saudi Arabia Crude Oil & Liquids Fuel Production January 2005 - May 2008

Figure 5 - Russia Crude Oil & Liquids Fuel Production January 2005 - May 2008

Figure 6 - Mexico Crude Oil & Liquids Fuel Production January 2005 - May 2008

Figure 7 - United Kingdom Crude Oil & Liquids Fuel Production January 2005 - May 2008

Figure 8 - Nigeria Crude Oil Production January 2002 - May 2008

The June 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.42 MB, 21 pp).

Figure 1 - World Liquids Fuel Production January 2002 - May 2008

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.[break]

Latest Developments:

1) Total liquids - In May world production of total liquids increased by 490,000 barrels per day from April according to the latest figures of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Resulting in total world liquids production of 86.60 million b/d. Average global production in 2007 was 85.41 million b/d according to the IEA. In the first five months of 2008 an average of 86.82 million b/d was produced. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in their International Petroleum Monthly puts average global 2007 production at 84.55 million b/d and the first three months of 2008 at 85.70 million b/d.

2) Conventional crude - Latest available figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production including lease condensates decreased by 134,000 b/d from February to March. All time high crude oil production now stands at 74.63 million b/d in February 2008.

A selection of charts from this edition:

Figure 2 - World Crude Oil Production January 2002 - Narch 2008

Figure 3 - Non-OPEC Crude Oil Production January 2002 - Narch 2008

Figure 4 - Saudi Arabia Crude Oil & Liquids Fuel Production January 2005 - May 2008

Figure 5 - Russia Crude Oil & Liquids Fuel Production January 2005 - May 2008

Figure 6 - Mexico Crude Oil & Liquids Fuel Production January 2005 - May 2008

Figure 7 - United Kingdom Crude Oil & Liquids Fuel Production January 2005 - May 2008

Figure 8 - Nigeria Crude Oil Production January 2002 - May 2008

Although it might not look like it now Brian Cowen has the chance to become a legend. On his own lunch box anyway, The EU is in crisis and not the crisis that is headlining today. But a crisis that has been building up for the last 15 years.

Eurobaramoter is the EU polling agency to find out what people think of the EU and one fact that comes from it. Is that people across Europe are gradually being to dislike the EU. Back in 1991 71% of people in the EU thought that EU membership was a good thing. Now it is 58%. Funnily enough Ireland has the third highest positive response to that question with 74% saying it is positive. (The Dutch and Luxembourgers are higher.)  Europe is slowly losing the people. The response to this seems to be belligerence.

In many ways peoples apathy and distance from Europe is the cause of peoples apathy and distance from Europe.  People in Europe don’t vote in general elections based on a parties European policy. They vote on domestic issues. Parties are given free rain to do what they want not what the people want to do in Europe. After the rejection of the EU constitution in France and Holland the Lisbon treat was created to avoid referendums.But how long can this apathy last. Could the European elections soon herald a boost for euro sceptics?

The EU is asking Brian Cowen why this happened and what to do about it. This offers a opportunity. There seems to be an attempt by many of the pro-EU people in the media to spin it as Irish people voting against Abortion. As if Abortion was the main issue in this campaign. The polling in the Irish Times tells us alot.

The largest 2 blocks of voting no were Not knowing what it was about, and the loss of power( add big countries have to much power to this list). Together they account for 62% of the No. That is almost 32% of the people who voted.  While spinning the vote as to do with Abortion helps reinforce some peoples opinion that only non-decent people vote to no to EU treaties.

It will be interesting to see if the rest of Europe pushes on with the EU treaty. While some are calling for the eviction of Ireland from the EU. Annegrethe Rasmussen in the Danish Information paper. (Translated with google translator) said

The Irish have now said no twice in the same decade to the EU treaty. It might be reasonable to ask them whether they would not choose a looser ties to the European Union such as. Norway or Switzerland.

Yes we the people have vote no to the last 2 treaties but we are the only nation to have voted on the last two treaties. 4 nations got to vote on the constitution Spain, Luxembourg, France and Holland. Did people call for France and Holland to be excluded from the EU? No of course not. So why is Ireland different? In many ways that question answers why Irish people voted no. The Irish feel vulnerable to being marginalised, seen ignorable by much of the rest of Europe the reaction of the Sarkozy and Merkel to plough on regardless even though the rejection by the French and the Dutch resulted in the stopping of the process.

But this gets away from my point and the making of Brian Cowen. The Lisbon Treaty is not the EU and the EU is not the Lisbon Treaty. A vote against the Lisbon Treaty is not a vote against the EU. Governments have worked hard on creating the Lisbon Treaty and rather then consider the idea of coming up with a treaty that could pass referendums in every country  they would rather drop Ireland. This is where Cowen can come in.

The leaders of Europe are going to ask him what can be done to solve this crisis and he can say “a better treaty” and propose foundations of Europe that can be supported by the people. We have discussed some alternatives before. Cowen could be the guy who creates a new better Europe. Whether or not they listen is of course another thing and whether or not Cowen can come up with something good remains to be seen. .

This one I didn’t want to post on until Lisbon was over with and today’s front page Business Post story gives me the perfect segue.

Sunday Business Post:

The Government is conducting a major spending review which is expected to lead to…capital projects being scaled back…Particular emphasis is being placed on capital spending in education and health, which accounts for large elements of government expenditure.

Noel Whelan (Irish Times, Last Saturday):

No consideration appears to have been given to whether the current, temporary difficulties in the public finances should be addressed by tax increases.

Incomes in Ireland are currently under-taxed. The fact that Irish workers are the lowest taxed in Europe was emphasised this week by Brendan Butler of Ibec, not in response to the publication of the exchequer returns but during the debate on the Lisbon Treaty

I never really know what to make of Noel Whelan, he is known to be very close to Fianna Fail and it is often tempting to read him on a Saturday as an extension of thinking which is quite close to the top of Fianna Fail. If that is the manner in which to read him then last Saturday was a quiet piece of political kite-flying, that favourite passtime of politicians or a solo-run-also a favourite.

Cowen himself has never talked of tax increases on wages, have never brought it about at budget but he did commit himself wholeheartedly to the National Development Plan which secured funding for capital spending in health and education as well as roads and infrastructure. Perhaps the government reckon that they can put up taxes in certain parts of the economy and finance the capital spend out of that. It would be very interesting to hear government make that argument to people, tell them the tax we pay does not finance the public services we want.

This is especially so in education and health where primary schools get 50% less per child than secondary and some of our universities are crumbling and our hospitals and health system where….well how long have you got? Tony Blair got people onside to invest in services in the UK after 20 years of Thatcherism, could or would Cowen do the same here? In very simple terms it is investing in our future for spending in these areas is not an indulgence if we do not want to get locked into a cycle of boom and bust, binge and purge, like the past.

My Virtua Fighter 5 review may be a bit late, but I've got an excuse: I actually had to play the game as it was meant to be played before reviewing it. And playing Virtua Fighter 5 in its whole depth and beauty takes time - much time ...<!--break-->

Is Virtua Fighter 5 really the best fighting game of its genre? What are its ups and downs, and why is its gameplay generally described as "terribly deep?" Find out all this and more in my in-depth mega review, exclusively on GamersGlobal.

The hydrogen and ethanol powered car

[break]
Riots won’t bring oil prices down. Andris Piebalgs blog entry from 6th June. My emphasis added.

Last Tuesday I was a witness of a very sad episode. Belgian riot police employed force against a group of French and Italian fishermen marching to the European quarter to protest violently against high price of fuel. A car crash occurred as a consequence of the riots. The frustration of the demonstration is easy to understand, but certainly demonstrations and street fights are not the answer to this problem. Oil prices are high and will go higher. No demonstration can change that.

In the past, periods of relatively expensive crude, were followed by periods of cheap oil due to temporary factors like the first Gulf war. Currently, as well, there are temporary factors that are influencing oil prices, like the boom in commodities markets, geopolitical situation in several key producing areas, the weakening of the dollar or the turmoil in global financial markets.

However, the real drivers of oil price escalade have a structural nature. You all know the offer and demand law. If offer decreases, price increases. If there is a growth on demand, there is also a growth on price. If, at the same time offer decreases and demand increases then, price skyrockets. This is precisely what is happening in oil markets.

In year 2000 China had 4 million cars. In 2005 - already 19 million cars. It is expected that in 2010 the Chinese car fleet will be 55 million and 130 million in 2020. India is following a similar trend, and the economies of the United States and Europe continue to devour oil in large quantities. More and more people compete for an increasingly scarce commodity. We all know that oil will run out some day. The exact date is certainly under discussion, but there is a fact that nobody can deny, getting oil out of the earth is now much more difficult and expensive that it used to be.

The easy sources of oil are already in use. Oil companies are currently exploring in deep seas or in frozen and inaccessible regions. Geopolitical uncertainties reign in oil producing areas, while there is a growing tendency among producing countries to nationalise their resources, or make foreign investments more difficult. There is a growing shortage of highly skilled working force and exploration and production of oil is becoming a high tech activity, extremely expensive.

We all know the consequences. The barrel is currently around 130$, 300% more expensive than only 3 years ago. Experts are talking about prices of 200$ per barrel for next year only. At this levels, even non-conventional oil sources, such as heavy crude or tar sands become attractive, despite its awful CO2 foot print and high energy consumption.

So what is the solution? Well, we have to move away from oil. This is what the European Energy Policy is all about.We need to reduce demand with more efficient transport, industry and housing. We need to promote alternative fuels, like biofuels, electricity or hydrogen; we need to change to cleaner and more efficient transport modes like rail, short sea shipping, or public transport. And in the meantime, we need to continue our dialog with oil producers to encourage them to produce more and to supply the markets better. On 24th of June, I will meet ministers of the OPEC countries to discuss with them on this issue.

The era of cheap and easily available oil is over. We need to move away from black gold and put our efforts in a low carbon economy. The sooner we do that, the better.

My reply

Dear Andris,

This entry is the most appalling muddled mess - which is a direct reflection of EU energy policy. There are shafts of sunlight mixed in with utter rubbish.

Each time I have left an entry here I have told you that we are in the early stages of a full blown energy crisis. It is a great pity that you have waited until oil hit $130 per barrel and for French fisherman to riot before realising that this is indeed the case. Of course if you and your team were up to the job, you would be able to study the oil supply and demand data published by the IEA, the EIA and BP and conclude that an energy crisis is on the way in advance and put in place effective strategies to mitigate for this. But no, your approach is reactive, well behind the curve, wrongly focussed and without a substantial re-writing of the EU Energy policy, it is destined to fail. The riots in Belgium and Iberia are partly your fault. You are the EU energy commissioner, pipe dreaming whilst EU energy security drains away.

It is encouraging to see that you finally understand that demand for oil, gas and coal are rising whilst supply for oil at least is static. Rising demand against static supply is controlled by escalating price, encouraging conservation and pricing poor Europeans out of the energy market. You should by now understand that when poor people get priced out of the energy market they riot.

The next thing you need to grasp with some urgency is that oil supply will not stay static for long. IT IS GOING TO GO DOWN ONE DAY VERY SOON. (2012±3 years) And then the problems we are experiencing now will get worse by a factor of 100 or more. WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO ABOUT THIS?

The EU and the OECD in general has absolutely no control over raising global oil supplies. You seem to think that OPEC does, BUT YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND THAT OPEC ARE PUMPING FLAT OUT. The IEA data shows that their reserve capacity is near zero. So the only control OPEC has would be to reduce supply in order to conserve their dwindling reserves for future generations.

Thus, the only part of the equation that the EU can control is demand. The EU needs to introduce with some urgency measures to reduce demand for oil and natural gas. And here I believe you make some good points. We need solid, urgent plans to radically transform our transportation systems. To be blunt, cheap air travel for all will not be part of this future. Shipping, canals, and electrified mass transit and electric cars are the future. We need someone with vision to stimulate pilot V2G projects across Europe.

Energy conservation and energy efficiency must be vital cornerstones of the EU energy policy. I believe you understand that but you don't seem to understand what energy efficiency means. (hence you drive one of the least energy efficient cars ever produced). Producing H uses more energy than can be recovered. It is an energy sink, a waste of energy and a waste of time (apart from in some isolated special cases). Ethanol consumes almost as much energy as it produces and falls into the same category - a waste of time and precious energy. You are converting Gold (nat gas) to Lead (ethanol - anecdote borrowed from Matt Simmons). As a guiding beacon if the eroei of an energy producing system is less than 7 then it must be ignored. It does not produce sufficient net energy to run society - and so pursuing the twin follies of H and ethanol will drag Europe off the net energy cliff.

In essence what you have done in this blog entry is to re-package the wholly misguided EU energy policy that is predicated on climate change and trying now to sell this rubbish as a solution to the emerging energy crisis.

From here there are two ways forward. You either have to admit that the current energy policy is a shambolic mess, tear it up and start over - but this needs to be done urgently, within a matter of months. Or you need to resign and let someone else do this vital job.

Euan Mearns BSc PhD
Editor The Oil Drum Europe

PS I wholly endorse tonyw's comment up thread - if you want to reduce demand for oil today we need pan-european speed limits and legislation on gas guzzlers. Let these fine German engineers turn their attention to efficiency instead of speed and power.

If you feel strongly about EU energy policy then please leave a comment on Andris Piebalgs blog on the thread - Riots won't bring oil prices down

The EU Commission contemplating driving Europe and all its citizens off the net energy cliff. The Oil Drum's geologists, chemists, physicists, economists, bankers and engineers are in pursuit, trying to stop them. Will they get there in time?

Pictures from Thelma and Louise who were having a great time on a girls night out until they made a mistake. And one thing lead to another....

The Helga de Alvear gallery in Madrid is currently running a (very timely) exhibition on the controversial topic of Extraordinary Rendition. The expression was coined by the Bush administration to define new legal measures designed to sidestep the existing Human Rights system and deprive some individuals from its protection in the name of the fight against terrorism.

Detainees at Camp X-Ray, at Naval Base Guantanamo Bay, Cuba

The Patriot Act, for example, expands the authority of US law enforcement agencies for "terrorism investigation." It limits -when it does not completely abolish it- citizens' right to privacy or freedom of expression, allows for kidnapping and confinement of persons without charges, without trial or a detention period as has been happening in Guantanamo since 2002.

The gallery invited four renowned artists to reflect on the issue.

Elmgreen and Dragset, Phone Home, 2008

Phone Home (2003), by Elmgreen & Dragset, is the only work on exhibit that has not been created specifically for the show. The installation looks at the loss of the right to privacy in communications. Five telephone cabins are lined up in the gallery. A note informs visitors that they can call anyone they want in the world for free. Of course there's a trick: the conversation you are planning to have will be broadcast in the gallery, recorded and a table with audio players and headphones will enable future visitors to listen to what you said.

Under the new rules of extraordinary rendition, physical and psychological torture is justified. Spanish Inquisition-like methods of torture get toned down but that's because some of them are given new names, like waterboarding, in an attempt to disguise their true meaning.

Santiago Sierra, Público iluminado con generador de gasolina, 2008

True to his wam bam approach, Santiago Sierra chose to address torture and one of its most commonly applied methods: the sleep deprivation of detainees for days and months. A huge spotlight operated by a generator are the only elements in Público iluminado con generador de gasolina [Public illuminated by oil generator]. Unfortunately the gallery had run out of oil (another very timely issue) when i went there and the installation was turned off.

Alicia Framis, Welcome to Guantanamo, 2008. Image courtesy of Galería Helga de Alvear, Madrid

Alicia Framis is presenting the first part of a wider project called Welcome to Guantánamo Museum. The installation documents the key elements that would form this hypothetical museum on the US detention centre in Cuba. Scale models, drawings, prototypes, floor plans and structures are exhibited together with an audio piece created with Enrique Vila Matas and Blixa Bargeld. The project echoes our society's need to museify everything, think of Auschwitz and Alcatraz. Should we recoil at the idea of turning horror into a tourist attraction or should we decide that such museums are not a necessary evil, a way of ensuring that atrocities are not forgotten?

Alicia Framis, Welcome to Guantanamo, 2008. Image courtesy of Galería Helga de Alvear, Madrid

The proposal for a Guantanamo Museum will include a selection of exhibition objects and merchandising that reflect the museum's theme and motto -- Things to forget. There will be a Le Corbusier chaise longue turned into an electric chair, a non-existent mailbox, shoes which contain inside their heels a system to allow prisoners to commit suicide, a series of orange clothing and objects designed by Framis together with students during workshops, furniture for the museum will be designed and built using the material of inmates' cells, etc. At the same time a sound room will recall the names of all the caged prisoners in Guantanamo.

James Casebere, Flooded cell #2, 2008

James Casebere made photos of what he calls Flooded Cells. These images conjure up allusions to prisons, claustrophobic and oppressive spaces somehow reminiscent of Piranesi's fictitious and distressing prisons (carceri) yet also referencing the method of torture by simulated drowning.

Extraordinary is part of the Off programme of PhotoEspana. You can see the show until July 19 at the Helga de Alvear gallery in Madrid. My images.

Related stories: Trevor Paglen's talk at Transmediale, Interview with the Institute for Applied Autonomy, They make art not bioterrorism, Tracking the Torture Taxis.

At first it was just sort of quaint, how the media seemed to always give Obama a pass and never probed or asked him any hard questions, but many just attributed it to it being their "Honeymoon" with the black presidential candidate.

Then it became a bit more unnerving when all the media fawning and groveling of Obama got to the point where it even became the butt of the jokes on Saturday Night Live, a show that is far from being conservative in any respect.

Then it really got scary when even the SNL skits mocking the media bias in favor of Obama, which were very popular on YouTube, began to be pulled by ABC and YouTube from the Internet - the only place that I know of, on the web, where you still can see the full SNL skit, mocking groveling Jorge Ramos, of Univision, and his fawning, sniveling, fellow reporters at the CNN/ Univision Clinton/Obama debates, is at this site:

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Saturday_Night_Live_CNN_has_crush_0224.html

Let's see how long it remains up, before the Obama "Kabal" has their minions at Google and AOL remove it as well, like the rest!

Then the media bias in favor of Obama became so shamelessly, and openly brazen "in the tank" for Obama, that CNN, MSNBC, and NBC could well be said to have become but propagandist "surrogates" of the Obama campaign, running nothing but 24/7 pro-Obama "infomercials for the Obama campaign in their newscasts!

Then any and all critique or disparaging of Obama, or his America-hating resented wife, has become so utterly socially "unacceptable" of late, that it's coming to the point where one has to wonder how long it will be before it becomes "simply" illegal to dissent, criticize, or question, in any way, the "Obamamessiah"!

Now it has gotten so ridiculously absurd, and Obama and his Obamamoonies have become so thin-skinned ultra-hypersensitive to the smallest criticism or the most insignificant slight of Obama's "Messianic Personage," that he has even created a web site to, quote: "fight the smears" after a reporter had the audacity (how dare he!) to ask Obama about his wife's alleged "Whitey" tape (something we all know she is very capable of having said, given her hatred of America, her animus against white people, and the huge racial chip she wears on her shoulders). Next thing you know, Obama and his "worshipers" will come out with "Fight the truth.com" as well!

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/fightthesmearshome/

Even the caustic Bill O'Reilly on Fox, known for his blunt acerbic treatment of his subjects, has been bending backwards so much to say only good and supportive things about Obama, that he seems to be doing the "Calypso" over at the Factor, and topped it all off last week, by devoting an entire segment to defending Michelle Obama and haranguing her conservative detractors by telling them she's "off limits" to their criticisms! Is this indicative of another Bill O'Reilly "Best Seller" book in the works: Instead of "In Defense of Women" by H.L. Mencken, maybe "In Defense of Michelle Obama" by H.L. Mendacious O'Reilly, perhaps?!?!

And now E.D. Hill and her show, "America's Pulse" has been removed from her time slot at Fox, because of something she said that the Obama camp and the Obamamoonies found offensive to their black, Marxist, "demigod" Obama! Can it be said that Miss Hill's "America's Pulse" raised the "pulse" and blood pressure of Obama and his sniveling minions and had them seeing red (their favorite flag color)? How ludicrous can it get?!?!

But what is even more sinister and foreboding is the way that Fox News and O'Reilly have buckled and stooped to Obama and his followers after the despicable George Soros "Media Matters" launched an all out campaign against Miss Hill and Fox News.

http://mediamatters.org/items/200806100009

Fox News, the only place where one used to "hear it as it is," and not the radical socialist propaganda spewed by the Marxist, terrorist-loving, secularist, "Liberal Mainstream Media." I wonder if Fox and O'Reilly see an Obama victory in November as inevitable, and thus are sucking up to the Obama camp to gain some "crumbs of favor" in their eyes! Don't make me laugh! It is sickening.

I would like to remind Fox News, Roger Ailes, and Bill O'Reilly, that their meteoric rise to prominence as the cable news network with the highest ratings in the nation is thanks to conservative viewers like me, and that this new strategy of "smooching" the hem of Obama's garment in obeisance, and of being so over-diligent in the politically correct acquiescence of the least Obama slight upon the smallest sign of a whimper from the Obama camp or Media Matters, could turn out to be very disastrous for Fox News and its ratings in the end!

I for one will stop watching Fox News, and will rely solely on proven reliable conservative Internet news sources for my news from now on, until Fox reverses its Obama-groveling decision to chastise and remove E.D. Hill for ruffling Obama's "dovish" terrorist-loving feathers! I urge other conservatives and admirers of Miss Hill to do the same, and therefore I call upon a Boycott of Fox News by all concerned conservatives.

Let's see how Fox's ratings will fare without its conservative audience, when pandering only to the far-left that hates them with a passion, and to the whining, cultist, deranged Obamamaniacs!

Let Fox News know we won't stand for any more sell-outs to this "Black Nationalist" "Marxist-in-sheep's- clothing" Obama, and that we will call "an apple an apple" and "an orange an orange," no matter how politically incorrect or "seditious" against the "Obamamessiah" it may be to his "Kool-Aid drinking" followers, or to the "Fifth Column" commie Marxist "Moles," and the Soros "Kabal" trying to "shoe him in" at all costs into the White House!

I already called Fox demanding they re-instate E.D. Hill, and have sent them several e-mails voicing my dismay and my displeasure. I urge others to do the same.

BOYCOTT FOX NEWS - BRING BACK E.D. HILL - SACK OBAMA INSTEAD!

Here is the Fox web site: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,77538,00.html

Here are the Fox News contacts:

Fox News toll free comments hotline: 1-888-369-4762 or you can e-mail your comments at:
yourcomments@foxnews.com

You can also write Fox at:

Fox News Channel
1211 Avenue of the Americas
New York, NY 10036

To contact Bill O'Reilly: Oreilly@foxnews.com

To contact Brit Hume, General News Mgr at Fox News: brit.hume@foxnews.com or at: special@foxnews.com

To contact Mis Hill and offer her your support: americaspulse@foxnews.com

To contact Fox News Advertising (where it hurts them most):

FOX News Channel
Cable Advertising Group
1211 Avenue of the Americas
New York, NY 10036
(212) 301-3000

FOX Business Network
John McCann
Vice President, Sales
(212) 301-5009
john.mccann@foxnews.com

Intersting analysis over at Open Democracy about the reasons Lisbon was rejected and an attempt to conceptualise the ‘democratic deficit’ that was apparently at the heart of the rejection. It is interesting from perusing the papers today that this analysis is taking a lot of hold, that it was the local context that informed voters perspective on Europe.

I am not sure there can be any other way of approaching this short of asking all people to be European citizens in the fullest possible sense of identification.

As Richard Sinnott outlined in the Irish Times yesterday, that is a huge ask of a country where 59% describe themselves as solely “Irish”. The analysis is interesting for it suggests that the lack of a joined up system between the EU, our executive which negotiates treaties, the Dail and the media/public is what constitutes a lack of democracy in Europe. That the EU itself is ok but the procedures in this country for connecting voters to it, plugging them in and getting the buy-in or cache that wins referenda is not there. They may not be off the mark in one sense, school water charges anyone?.

Yet there is a more fundamental disconnect expressed here, I think the word that swung many voters was consolidation because pro-EU as we may be we do not want a Federal State. There is a chaotic element to Europe that is reassuring to voters, it tells them that no one is in charge per se and it remains an intergovernmental plaything at its very core. The idea of consolidation, of rationalising, of tidying up is a bridge too far at present. The idea hints at a centrality and organisation that we are more familiar with at national level, an ability to organise policy and law from the centre. It did not need to be spelled out because it was not a rational argument, it was an emotive response.

Like a pavlovian response, voters were presented with a “consolidating” treaty and thought, hang on. They didn’t do it in huge numbers, 53%-46% is not a landslide, but they did it in far greater numbers than in Nice I with a lot of “soft no” votes coming down to vote and abandoning the 60% pro-EU majority that seems to be latent in the country. Most notable voters in this regard were Munster and Connaught voters who saw this as a step they would not take - by as much as 60% - 40% in some cases.

Personally I think it was far more than a democratic deficit that swung it, dislocated social groups were wary of voting in favour of distant sites of governance (real or perceived). When the socio-economic activity is moving rapidly out of their locality and either outsourcing abroad or drying up as an industry the desire and impulse is, naturally, to retain control as locally as possible.

Keith has a really great post on Lisbon (not least for his Martin pic). He has four ways Europe can resurrect the defeat from Lisbon number 4 is my favourite but hop over to read the rest.

Don’t be so bloody patronising.

Feel free to check out the t-shirt shop aswell. Some new EU ones up there too.