Perhaps out of worry that the High Court will not find in his favour after tomorrow’s case or perhaps out of that deep-seated predisposition to change his mind more often than the weather, Ahern is widely reported as considering only giving sparse detail to the Dail tomorrow. I am not sure we would have known the difference to be quite frank, however it seems that discussions with Senior Ministers has confirmed (if such a thing is even possible at this point) in his mind that he should only give the bare minimum to the Dail and wait for his next Tribunal hearing.

There is a side of me that thinks some of Ministers would have to advise him of that course. Should he go and tell the Dail everything, after first stating he would not be doing so and getting his Ministers to defend such a course of action, he makes them look like prize clowns whose sole purpose is to do Bertie’s bidding and defend all sorts. By heading into the Dail and giving some degree of clarification, all those who wish to “see the tribunal’s proceedings respected” simply end up with a bit of egg on their faces.

This is hardly just a political judgement on their part, they are perhaps keen to see Ahern exert some degree of authority at this point. He appears absolutley incapable of controlling the agenda on this story and his tried and tested mechanism of “brass-necking it” hasn’t done him many favours so far. Perhaps most worrying of all is that the Dail may become a site of ongoing inquiry into what might be seen as questionable political practice. The process of a Tribunal has always been used to remove much of the political heat and sting from a bad news story. It places the problem at a distance from politics, carried out by judges with no legal standing other than finding facts. It is not a trial or a court proceedings, it doesn’t determine innocent or guilt. Most importantly, it takes a long time.

Moving the site of such an inquiry to a dedicated, well-financed Dail committee which would inquire and find in a brief time once a complaint was made to it would put the fear of God into many politicians. Allowing for the ongoign precedent of Dail challenges on the basis of his Tribunal evidence to continue may not be the desire of any who might be king. However it seems to me that there really is no choice on this one.

As I have stated above, Ahern is not in control of this story. He doesn’t know what is going to come at him next and he doesn’t know when. The next appearance on May 20 is nearly two months away, with a trip to Congress in between. That trip may be overshadowed by some tribunal leak or fallout from the High Court case. His position is being undermined by a drip-drip effect and a failure to respond with convincing stories to what emerges. Not giving a statement Wednesday is not only a smack in the face to the Dail, it is also giving a political hostage to fortune for six weeks. Those are gambles that Ahern has not been winning of late.